The probability of securing the jackpot prize consecutively in the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO) lotto games is "not impossible" but is rare and has a "very little" chance of happening, according to Guido David, a mathematician and OCTA researcher.
In an interview with DWPM Radyo 630 on Jan. 26, David explained a sample scenario where the probability of winning the lotto jackpot decreases in successive draws.
"Let's say a few hundred thousand bet for the jackpot in every draw. In each draw, the probability of winning is two percent or less. However, in consecutive draws, for example, two draws, it's two percent times two percent, so it's only 0.04 percent," said David, using a mix of English and Filipino.
"It continues to decrease; for example, in 10 consecutive draws, it has very little probability — not impossible but it's a rare occurrence," he added.
While David acknowledged that it is "not impossible," he suggested that it may still raise eyebrows. He advised maximizing auditing rather than relying solely on statistics to investigate.
"Statistics will never prove that there is something different in the process, so they need to audit to look at the processes if there is a fair draw," David said.
Moreover, David stated that the probability of winning the jackpot prize is one in 5 million for the 6/42 draw, one in 14 million for the 6/49 draw, and one in 29 million for the 6/55 draw.
David is affiliated with the University of the Philippines (UP) Institute of Mathematics and OCTA Research, a group known for its work related to the Covid-19 pandemic in the Philippines.