More and more businesses across the globe are worried about a possible second coming of Republican candidate Donald J. Trump as president of the United States, according to Oxford Economics.
"Fears over the potential fall-out from a Trump presidency have increased for the third consecutive survey," Oxford Economics head of macro scenarios Jamie Thompson said in a Sept. 20 report, referring to the think tank's Global Risk Survey for September.
"More than two-fifths of businesses (43 percent) now cite a Trump presidency as a very significant risk to the global economy—a greater proportion than for any other geopolitical risk" for the next two years, Thompson said.
The upcoming US presidential election in November is seen as a tight race between Trump, who lost his reelection bid to President Joe Biden in 2020, and Democrat bet and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
"Concerns about a Trump presidency are also evident in the probabilities businesses attach to four key economic risks quantified in our latest global scenarios. Respondents on average see a one-in-five chance of a 'full-blown Trump presidency' scenario, characterized by a weakening US economy. This is a greater probability than that attached to the other three global scenarios," Thompson added.
Global risks seen emanating from a US President Trump 2.0 next year trumped other top business concerns such as higher-for-longer interest rates, escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, and inflation, the survey showed.
On the flip side, Thompson noted that "concerns over other geopolitical risks have eased."
"Less than a quarter of respondents (24 percent) view the Middle East as a very significant risk to the global economy over the next two years, compared with more than a half in April this year and October last year," Thompson pointed out.
This latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey generated responses from 150 businesses worldwide during the period Sept. 6 to 17, just before the US Federal Reserve aggressively slashed interest rates by 50 basis points on Sept. 18.
Survey respondents nonetheless still expect a "soft landing" -- gradual slowdown in both inflation and economic growth -- for the US, while they were also cautious about a sustained Fed monetary policy easing cycle, according to Thompson.
In another report also on Sept. 20, Oxford Economics said that while businesses globally are less optimistic about near-term global economic prospects, they still do not see the likelihood of a recession in 2025.
"Overall, businesses expect global growth to ease gradually in the near term... Perceived recession risks have risen but are still seen as contained. Businesses judge there to be a one-in-eight chance of a global recession next year, and only a one-in-40 chance of economic weakness on the scale experienced during the global financial crisis," according to the think tank's latest Global Business Sentiment Index, which was derived from the results of its September Global Risk Survey.