LONDON, England – The planned deployments of small modular reactors (SMRs) by a great deal of energy markets will drive the growth in nuclear power capacity in the decades ahead, according to a report that was released by the World Nuclear Association in an ongoing global symposium here.

“Together with gigawatt-scale reactors, governments, utilities and industrial end-users are showing a strong interest in small modular reactors and microreactors, including advanced designs that offer simpler construction and financing,” the Nuclear Fuel Report on Global Scenarios has stipulated.

As projected, SMRs “will contribute up to 10-percent of total large-scale capacity in the upper scenario (of the report) in 2040,” but the lower scenario forecasts relatively modest growth of just 0.4-percent.

It is worth noting that the Philippines is one of the energy markets opting for SMR installations once this technology reaches commercial rollout phase by 2030 and onwards. The starting point being eyed by the Philippine energy market will be nuclear power deployment of 1,200 megawatts by 2032.

The 2023-2040 global nuclear report has factored in three scenarios: the reference scenario as anchored on government and utility targets and objectives; the lower scenario, which assumed delays in implementing plans and projects; then the upper scenario, that is underpinned by more ‘favorable conditions’ – primarily concretization of projects that had been announced by various countries to help them deliver on their net-zero carbon emission goals.

Currently, the aggregate capacity of operable nuclear power installations hovers at 391-gigawatt electrical (GWe); and under the reference scenario, installations will likely be ramped up to 686 GWe by 2040; then the upper scenario estimates 931GWe capacity within the planning timeframe; while lower scenario places it at 486 GWe.

According to the report, “the global effort to decarbonize energy supplies, heightened political commitment to ensuring energy security and sovereignty, and growing interest in deploying SMRs along with larger reactors has led to significant increases in projections for future nuclear capacity, and demand for nuclear fuel cycle services.”

It was similarly emphasized that the geopolitical instability ignited by the long-drawn out Russia-Ukraine war “led to increased interest in nuclear power for energy security and sovereignty.”

The report, nevertheless, highlighted that the war-ignited instability “has had significant implications for the globalized market for nuclear fuel cycle services,” hence, that has been prompting utilities, suppliers and governments to opt for diversification in supply sourcing.

Beyond foreseen growth in SMR deployments, global players in the nuclear industry are also experiencing extended operating life cycles of existing nuclear power reactors – with some facilities having their operations stretched up to 80 years.

“Extending the planned operating lifetimes of the existing fleet of nuclear reactors is one of the positive changes … several countries with larger reactor fleets are allowing existing plants to operate for up to 60 years, and in the United States, to 80 years,” the report stressed.

As indicated, more than 140 reactors “could be subject to extended operation in the period to 2040 - driven by economics, emissions reduction targets, as well as security of supply.”

On fueling up the nuclear power facilities, the report conveyed that “primary production of uranium from mines, conversion plants and enrichment plants continue to supply the majority of the demand for nuclear reactors around the globe.”

It was specified that “in the near term, secondary supplies of uranium will continue to play a role in bridging the gap between supply and demand,” while secondary supply “is projected to have a gradually diminishing role in the world market - decreasing from the current level in supplying 11-14-percent of reactor uranium requirements to 4-11-percent  in 2050.”

The report opined that there will be “sufficient uranium resources existing to meet future needs,” although it qualified that “producers have been waiting for the market to rebalance before starting to invest in new capacity.”