THE VIEW FROM RIZAL
After “Betty,” El Niño
As we were writing this column, residents of Luzon were heaving a collective sigh of relief.
PAGASA had just reported that “Betty” had just been reported downgraded to the category of “typhoon.” International forecasters said the typhoon “will most likely stay north” of the country. The chances that it will make landfall in the Philippines as it did in Guam is almost nil. We have been warned, however, that the presence of “Betty” north of Luzon may trigger heavy rains, landslides, flooding, and gale-force winds in several parts of the island.
For a brief moment, we were anxious that “Betty,” which was then still a super typhoon, would directly affect portions of the country, or even make landfall. That was a scary thought which triggered memories of what “Yolanda” did to Leyte. It also got us to reflect on how prepared we are for the possible onslaught of this phenomenon called “super typhoons” and why they seem to be happening more frequently in recent times.
Now that the scary moment is over, our collective attention will focus once more on another climatic issue – the worrisome coming of “El Niño.”
It will be recalled that PAGASA had earlier warned us that we may soon feel the onset of this weather system.
The same warning has been issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This is a specialized agency of the United Nations. Similar to the World Health Organization, WMO facilitates international cooperation for the exchange of information on weather and climate.
The Philippines became a member of WMO in April 1949.
In a bulletin issued early this month, the WMO said that there is now an increased likelihood of El Niño “later this year (2023).” It explained that this development means we may experience weather and climate patterns that are the opposite of the long-running La Niña.
One of the first indications of its onset is the possible higher global temperatures.
“The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña),” the WMO said.
“There is a 60 percent chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70 percent in June-August and 80 percent between July and September,” it added.
It also pointed out that there is yet no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño.
Consistent with the earlier PAG ASA statement, the WMO said the effects of El Niño “usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024.”
“The world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought, or rainfall in different parts of the world,” the WMO advised.
This is a timely advice for all of us. It is worrisome that the passing by of “Betty” triggered doubts about the reliability and credibility of the warning about the coming of El Niño. The recent downpours triggered by afternoon thunderstorms may have caused many to think that the long dry spell which weather agencies have warned us about may not be coming after all.
It will be good to heed the warning of meteorological experts than to rely on gut feel or wishful thinking.
The first major concern is our supply of water.
As we mentioned in an earlier column, our supply of clean, potable water is finite. Water is a resource shared by various sectors, including agriculture and power generation. The national government has to allocate this scarce resource based on the availability of supply and the urgency of the requirement. When drought occurs, the requirement of all the sectors sharing the dwindling supply becomes urgent.
Regarding this, the national water agencies and the private sector have to join hands and work faster to build the necessary infrastructure where water can be stored while the supply is abundant. They also have to work faster in tapping the full potential of other freshwater sources to serve the potable water requirements of the public.
The worry over “Betty” showed that government – at the national and local levels – is able to quickly respond to immediate risks. We were able to mobilize human and logistical resources in our bid to mitigate the possible damage that could be brought about by a super typhoon.
We must also develop our ability to think long-term and make our water supply more secure and resilient, less subject to the erratic moods of Mother Nature.
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