EDITORS DESK
It’s official: In 2024, the world breached the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold for global warming, a limit established by the 2015 Paris Agreement. This alarming development was confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), drawing from analyses by scientists in the US, UK, and EU. Further validation came from the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the UK Met Office, and Japan’s weather agency.
Adopted by 196 parties during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris on Dec. 12, 2015, the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Its overarching goal, as stated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to “hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”
The recent breach underscores a grim reality: The past decade has been the hottest in recorded history, with 2024 marking the peak. This year is likely to be the first with a global mean temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Samantha Burgess of the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service noted, “The last 10 years are the 10 hottest on record and are likely the hottest in 125,000 years.” Adding to this, Copernicus identified July 10, 2024, as the hottest day ever recorded.
Burgess added: “The primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures continue to increase, including in the ocean, sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt."
In the Philippines, extreme temperatures mirrored global trends. Metro Manila experienced its hottest day in history on April 27, 2024, with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) recording an air temperature of 38.8 degrees Celsius at Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). The heat index soared to 45 degrees Celsius at NAIA and 42 degrees Celsius at the Quezon City Science Garden.
The provinces also saw all-time high records. Zambales province recorded 53 degrees Celsius on April 28, 2024. Subic Bay in Olongapo, Munoz in Nueva Ecija, and Dagupan in Pangasinan recorded 47 degrees, according to PAGASA.
While individual years exceeding the 1.5-degree limit don’t spell the end of the Paris Agreement’s goals, they signal an urgent need for action. “It means we need to fight even harder to get on track,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement confirming the breach. “There’s still time to avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But leaders must act—now.”
Guterres underscored that the recorded heat of 2024 demands unprecedented climate action in 2025. Governments must deliver updated national climate action plans to curb global temperature rise and prioritize support for vulnerable communities facing the brunt of climate impacts.
The question remains: Will leaders heed this warning and act decisively, or will the world continue its trajectory toward irreversible climate catastrophe?
(Rey Robes Ilagan is the editor of Manila Bulletin’s Environment and Sustainability section.)