This year's climate negotiations centered on the inaugural Global Stocktake (GST), a five-yearly review assessing progress toward Paris Agreement goals.
Leading up to the 28th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, the technical phase of the GST revealed significant shortfalls in efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The final COP28 agreement, though not explicitly endorsing a fossil fuel phase-out, underscored the need to reduce emission reduction targets of 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.
We summarized the key achievements and missed opportunities at the recently concluded UN climate change summit and what do they tell us about the challenges ahead:
Fossil fuels
COP28 inched toward fossil fuel transition but failed to deliver the “full phase-out” needed to address the climate crisis.
This year marked the first time that COP openly called for nations to “transition away from fossil fuels” but the text falls short of deliberately putting a complete stop to fossil-fuel burning.
The progress of the Mitigation Work Programme will play a crucial role, as the current text lacks a clear directive on the speed and action needed for moving away from fossil fuels. This aspect is anticipated to be a focal point in upcoming negotiations.
Renewables
COP28 has made one thing clear: Renewables are the future. The final decision sets a target for countries to triple renewable energy by 2030.
Beyond COP28, however, we must recognize that rising interest rates and debt burdens in developing countries threaten to leave this ambition stranded.
Without a reform of the global financial system, including debt restructuring and debt reliefs, the fight for a renewable-powered future will be fought with one hand tied behind its back.
Nuclear and fossil gas
COP28 unfortunately made reference to the unnecessary role of bridge fuels and nuclear energy in the global energy transition.
These pathways are deceptive at best and dangerous at worst. They would only perpetuate in developing and vulnerable countries the very system where expensive and imported fossil fuels thrived in the first place.
This is where the Big Oil machinery is placing their multibillion dollar bets. And we should be wary of how this will play out in future negotiations.
Adaptation
COP28 delivered mixed progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).
This year’s negotiations yielded a framework for adaptation, identifying key themes like water, food, health, and ecosystems, and outlining potential sub-goals like universal clean water access and protecting 30 percent of ecosystems.
Nations agreed on developing a two-year work program to establish adaptation progress indicators. However, the future success of the GGA heavily depends on developed countries' commitment to providing adequate financial resources and adhering to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
Loss and Damage
COP28 delivered a Loss and Damage Fund without enough money.
COP28 saw a promising start for climate justice with the launch of the Loss and Damage Fund, securing more than $700 million in pledges. However, this falls dramatically short of the billions needed to truly support those facing the brunt of climate change.
Moreover, the decision does not explicitly establish mandatory contributions from developed countries. This remains a contentious issue that will linger in next year’s negotiations.
COP28 has also launched the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage, to be jointly hosted by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and United Nations Office for Project Services, to provide rapid technical support to vulnerable communities facing loss and damage from climate change.
Climate finance
COP28 served up a procedural dance on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), with the details for the post-2025 climate finance target set to be hammered out in COP29.
The NCQG was mandated by the Paris Agreement to provide developing countries with the funds to cut their emissions and increase their resilience to climate hazards. It is expected to raise the target by developed and polluting countries to mobilize $100 billion every year for the climate finance needs of developing nations.
In the lead up to COP29, our work is cut out for pushing for an NCQG that tackles the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries head-on, not just offers empty promises.
What lies ahead?
Despite the Big Oil machinery hovering over this year’s negotiations, COP28 yielded incremental progress toward recognizing that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis.
Whether this marks the fossil fuel era's end, as Climate Reality Founder Al Gore underscored in his statement, hinges on “actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them.”
In view of this, we reiterate the pivotal role of finance in achieving climate justice.
Finance will continue to drive ambition and outcomes in critical areas like mitigation, just transition, energy access, adaptation, and aiding nations affected by loss and damage.
The Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, and Loss and Damage Fund, alone, cannot address the enormous finance needs to address the climate crisis. Moving forward, pushing for climate justice inherently requires a fundamental restructuring of international finance to enable climate-vulnerable countries to expand their adaptive capacity and pursue a just energy transition.