FINDING ANSWERS
Former Senator Atty. Joey D. Lina
The massive 7.8 magnitude quake in southern Türkiye and northern Syria that has claimed more than 34,000 lives so far, with the numbers still climbing, is the kind of apocalyptic nightmare geoscientists have been worrying about.
A glimpse of the enormity of devastation as gathered from satellite imagery and drone footages showed the affected area is around the size of France (551,695 square kms.), the International Federation of the Red Cross said.
To put it another way, the disaster area in both Türkiye and Syria is almost double the size of the Philippines. And, as the World Health Organization estimates, the catastrophe could impact up to 23 million people. But “we haven’t yet seen the full extent of the damage and of the humanitarian crisis unfolding before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.
With the scale of destruction and the staggering number of people crushed to death, seriously injured, and rendered homeless, Türkiye and Syria would need all the aid the international community can provide. It’s heartwarming to note the Philippines has also sent help. A group of 85 Filipino engineers and health workers are already there, and our government is also giving blankets and winter clothing to quake victims.
Also, as of this writing, the Philippines is set to donate $100,000 to Türkiye. House Speaker Martin Romualdez said the humanitarian aid comes from the disaster relief and rehabilitation initiative of his office. He said it’s a “gift and symbol of gratitude from the Philippines to Türkiye” for helping our country when it was hit by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013.
The powerful quake that hit before dawn last Feb. 6 did not come as complete surprise. Türkiye is no stranger to tremors as it sits on two major faults — the North Anatolian fault measuring 930 miles long and the 300-mile-long East Anatolian fault which is believed to be the origin of the latest earthquake.
Various reports said Türkiye’s scientists and government officials were well-aware of the potential danger from the East Anatolian fault. Türkiye has come up with a set of building codes to protect against earthquakes but the latest tragedy “highlights a long-standing concern among scientists that it isn’t being enforced rigorously enough,” according to The Washington Post.
It’s true that while science cannot stop earthquakes or predict when it would strike, it offers vast knowledge on how to prevent deaths from collapsing structures.
“The old saying is: ‘Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings kill people.’ It’s heartbreaking, especially when you see a building that was built properly holding up and the one next door is completely collapsed,” lamented geophysicist Tom Parsons of the US Geological Survey.
Another quake expert, Mustafa Erdik, who founded the department of earthquake engineering at Bogazici University in Istanbul, said that problems in Türkiye lie in the “degree of conformity with the code.” Thus, it is imperative that regulations provided in building codes are strictly enforced or followed.
Like Türkiye, the Philippines is also prone to earthquakes because its geological location is in the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire. And among the quake origins with the greatest risk is the West Marikina Valley Fault — which runs from Bulacan through Quezon City and eastern parts of Metro Manila all the way to Laguna and Cavite.
Many warnings have been aired in the past about the Marikina Valley Fault which, according to seismology expert Renato Solidum, “moves every 400 years on average” and it last moved around 360 years ago.
Two studies have painted a doomsday scenario the fault might cause. One is the greater Metro Manila Area Risk Analysis Project released in 2013 showing that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake along the West Valley Fault will cause the collapse of structures within a span of 1,100 hectares that could kill 37, 000 people and cause ₱2.4 trillion in damages.
Another study known as the Metro Manila Impact Reduction Study was conducted from 2002 to 2004 by Philvolcs, Metro Manila Development Authority, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which came up with terrifying projections: 35,000 deaths, 500 simultaneous fires in 98,000 buildings.
The grim scenarios painted by these two studies clearly show the need for measures to mitigate destruction of unprecedented magnitude in our country. Old structures must be reinforced or retrofitted, if not demolished and replaced with new ones that strictly conform with the National Building Code and Structural Code.
As I’ve said before, local government units should be undertaking surveys and inspection of all buildings and houses to determine those that are of great risks so that corrective measures, if not outright demolition, could be done on structures found to be defective.
House-to-house inspections can determine the needed corrective measures. Civic-minded structural engineers and architects could form themselves into groups and, in the spirit of bayanihan, conduct “engineering missions” to look into and help strengthen the structures of informal settlers.
Regular earthquake drills should also become a way of life to lessen our vulnerability. And constantly imploring God’s protection against the unforgiving power of nature could also give us peace of mind as we prepare for the Big One.
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