Tropical depression Karding, the 11th tropical cyclone to develop in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in 2022, may bring heavy rains over Northern and Central Luzon beginning Saturday, Sept. 24, the state weather bureau said on Thursday morning, Sept. 22.
Karding was last spotted 1,350 kilometers (km) east of Central Luzon or 1,370 km east of Northern Luzon. It has maximum sustained winds of up to 45 kilometers per hour (kph), gustiness of up to 55 kph, and is moving eastward at 10 kph.
Possibility of raising wind signals
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), in its initial forecast, disclosed the “high likelihood” of raising tropical cyclone wind signal (TCWS) no. 1 in Northern Luzon and some portions of Central Luzon.
“Localities situated in the eastern portion of Northern Luzon may be placed under TCWS no. 1 as early as Friday evening, Sept. 23 or Saturday morning, Sept. 24,” said PAGASA.
It likewise warned that the passage of this weather disturbance may bring heavy rains over Northern and Central Luzon beginning Saturday, Sept. 24. Residents of these areas were advised to remain vigilant against rain-induced landslides and flash floods.
Landfall scenario
Karding’s initial forecast track showed that it is likely to maintain its eastward movement before “sharply turning westward” on Friday, Sept. 23.
It may then make landfall in the “vicinity of the east coast” of Isabela or Cagayan on Sunday, Sept. 25.
“Patuloy na inaasahan kikilos pa-kanluran for the next three to five days hanggang tuluyan nang lumabas ng PAR si Karding. Posible rin na ma-maintain lamang ‘yung tropical depression intensity, kapag ganoon ang highest warning signal na itataas natin ay aabot lamang ng hanggang 1 (Karding is expected to continue moving westward for the next three to five days until it is completely out of PAR. It may also maintain its tropical depression intensity, in that case, the highest warning signal we will raise may only reach 1),” said PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Chris Perez in a press briefing.