Metro Manila is projected to see up to 2,000 Covid-19 infections per day in July amid the increasing trend of cases in recent days, the Department of Health (DOH) said.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said that this was based on the projection of the Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN) Team.
“Meron tayong mga pinakikinggan na mga third-party na mga projection na mga outfits kagaya ng AuTuMN...na isinama din nila ang pagbabantay ng COVID dito sa Pilipinas at sinasabi nila na by the end of June or mga first week of July, ang kaso sa NCR will be anywhere from 800 to 1,200 a day (We are also looking at the projections of third-party outfits like AuTuMN. They are also conducting Covid surveillance in the Philippines. They projected that cases in NCR will be anywhere from 800 to 1,200 a day by the end of June or first week of July),” said Duque in a radio interview on Wednesday, June 22.
“Pwedeng mag-peak yan sa NCR ng 1,500 to 2,000. But after that peak some time in July, siguro by mid-July or end of July, babalik yan, magpa-plateau na ‘yan doon sa 800 to about 1,200 in NCR lang (That could peak at 1,500 to 2,000 possibly by mid or end of July. But after that, it may plateau at 800 to 1,200 cases daily—in NCR alone),” he added.
Significant increase
In a press briefing, DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that they are already seeing a “significant” increase in the number of new Covid-19 cases in the capital region.
“Of late, nakikita natin na nagtutuloy-tuloy ang pagtaas at significant na iyong pag increase ng number of cases (we are seeing that the number of cases continues to increase significantly), specifically here in NCR. Our positivity rate now in NCR is at 4.4 percent, dati (before, it was) less than one percent,” said Vergeire.
Almost 300 Covid-19 cases are being recorded daily in Metro Manila currently, said Vergeire.
Despite this increasing trend, Vergeire said that hospital admissions in Metro Manila remain manageable.
“What would be most important would be even though nakikita natin (we see that) there is continued increase in the number of cases, hindi sumasabay ang severe and critical cases na nakikita natin (the number of severe and critical cases is still not significant),” she said.
“Sa ngayon, oo meron mga (Currently, yes, there are) severe and critical that we are reporting but it is not enough to say that it is already significant. And also it is not translating into higher admissions in our hospitals, in our ICUs. Sana (We hope) we can sustain it at this point where it's just like the Omicron situation na mataas ang kaso pero (wherein cases were high but) mostly mild and asymptomatic,” she added.
Nationally, the Philippines remains at low risk classification for Covid-19 despite an uptick in new cases. The healthcare utilization rate nationwide is still under low-risk category, said Vergeire.