OFW FORUM
Jun Concepcion
The answer to this question is certainly awaited with bated breath by many in next month’s national election more than any other poll in recent years.
Although Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. continues to maintain a formidable double-digit lead, based on surveys, over Vice President Leni Robredo in major surveys, more and more indications are emerging that the presidential race between them may again go down the wire, just like what transpired during the 2016 vice presidential contest that Robredo won.
Pulse Asia Research Inc.’s March 17 to 21 survey of 2,400 adults showed that Marcos was favored by 56 percent of survey respondents, four percent lower from 60 percent in February. Robredo was in far second with 24 percent, less than half of her rival’s seemingly insurmountable and comfortable 56 percent spot. But intriguingly, Robredo gained a significant nine percent from just 15 percent in February.
So, will Robredo’s clearly upward momentum or trajectory between the middle of April and early next month ahead of the May 9 election be sufficient for her to catch up and even surpass her stiffest rival for the highest post in the land?
Robredo ally Antonio Trillanes, who aims to regain his Senate seat under Robredo’s ticket, admitted in a recent television interview entertaining some doubts whether the Vice President has sufficient time and momentum to overtake her stiffest rival for the presidency. He told the TV program host that had
Robredo declared her candidacy much earlier than her last-minute declaration, she would have saved herself from her seemingly precarious catch-up situation today. In spite of the great odds, Robredo allies and supporters remain hopeful that she will eventually emerge victorious, much like her uphill struggle in 2016, Trillanes added.
The huge numbers of people who turn up in her campaign sorties, highlighted by over 220,000 in one rally alone in Pampanga, underpin the hopes of the Robredo camp.
Robredo won the vice presidency in 2016 in a tight contest as she garnered 14,418,817 million votes initially and beat Marcos who got 14,155,344 million votes. After a votes recount in three provinces following Marcos’ cheating claim and recount petition, Robredo gained 15,093 more votes, as per the Supreme Court which functioned as the sitting as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET).
Inexplicably and sadly, scores of overseas Filipinos in Hong Kong, the Middle East and elsewhere continue to assert that Marcos had been cheated in 2016, in utter disregard of the Supreme Court and PET finding and in presumably blind loyalty to a Marcos family member.
So, can overseas Filipinos spell the difference in this year’s race for the presidency?
Possibly.
This prospect is not entirely unthinkable considering that Robredo beat Marcos in 2016 initially with a winning margin of 263,473.
Because a total of 1,697,215 registered as overseas absentee voters for this year’s national election, as per Commission of Election records, the possibility of overseas votes determining the final outcome of the presidential race cannot be ruled out entirely.
Speculating from which country or overseas city the bulk of Marcos or Robredo votes will come from is difficult. While certain places host substantial numbers of Ilocanos, bloc voting is unheard of. This is the case in Hong Kong where about half of the estimated 200,000-strong Filipino community has been invariably estimated as having originated from the Ilocos region. While many Ilocanos are staunchly rooting for Marcos in Hong Kong with registered voters of over 93,000, there are those who said they will vote according to their conscience and not simply because of the Marcos name.
Anticipated strong support for Marcos in places which host large number of Ilocanos, like Hong Kong, may well be offset in other cities elsewhere in the world with active Robredo volunteers. In Japan, hundreds of Robredo supporters staged last week a high-profile street march along Tokyo’s busy Shibuya Crossing. In North America, Filipino communities in Greater California (which hosts over 600,000 Filipinos), New York, Toronto (which hosts over 270,000 Filipinos) and Vancouver (which hosts over 133,000) have posted on social media in recent months a series of photos and videos of gatherings and other activities in support of Robredo. Many Filipino Americans and Canadians may well be expected to go for Robredo, not Marcos, based on volunteer activities in support of the vice president that they have engaged in in the recent past.
It will likely be a mixed bag in the Middle East, where Robredo supporters and Marcos fans took turns holding gatherings often in public parks in support of their preferred presidential candidate.
Rappler research based on Comelec data show the United Arab Emirates with the largest number of registered voters at over 290,000 followed closely by Saudi Arabia with over 282,000. Actual turnout though is likely to be much lower than the number of registered voters because of long distances from residence to the nearest Philippine embassy or consulate.
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