OFW Forum
Jun Concepcion
On paper, the country’s 10.2 million plus overseas Filipino community as per Commission on Overseas Filipinos (CFO) data looks formidable. In theory, they can significantly influence or even alter the outcome of the country’s national elections in 2022.
However, actual numbers belie the presumed significant influence which they can exert. Late in April 2016, Commission on Elections Commissioner Arthur Lim, who took charge of overseas absentee voting, revealed that only about 200,000 overseas Filipinos cast their votes during the national elections that year.
Arrayed against the total 54.4 million registered voters during the 2016 poll, the actual number of overseas voters that year appears insignificant and inconsequential. Although presumably inconsequential, the number marked a record as the highest level since the 2010 elections.
At the upcoming 2022 elections, will overseas Filipinos remain insignificant as in the 2016 poll? Or can they make a vital and critical difference, especially in light of certain political analysts’ forecasts that in a tightly contested race among up to seven contenders, a candidate can emerge victorious even with a very slim margin over other presidential aspirants. Contenders Vice President Leni Robredo, Senators Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquiao and Bato de la Rosa, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno and ex-senator Bongbong Marcos may be joined by presidential daughter Sara Duterte if she heeds calls to run.
The total number of overseas Filipinos who have successfully registered to vote in the 2022 is unclear as the extended registration ended only late last month. But several indicators point to a potential significant change in the dynamics and clout of overseas Filipinos, including those who failed to register as voters.
First off, though largely anecdotal, stories abound about OFWs who directly influence the voting choices of their family members back home. A case in point is Rosemarie, a domestic helper in Hong Kong with at least 15 family members comprised of her parents, siblings, their spouses and nephews who all voted as a bloc for President Rodrigo Duterte and his senatorial ticket in 2016. Since countless OFWs even females serve as family head with their remittance, they often wield significant influence on family decisions back home. No government agency or private institution has ever conducted any survey or study to quantify the extent of influence of overseas Filipinos on their kin back home. But despite lack of empirical data, there is hardly any disputing the significant clout of overseas Filipinos on family decisions back home, including election choices.
Following this premise, it can be assumed that overseas Filipinos offer potential to have a significant impact on the outcome of major elections in the country. If, for instance, each one of about five million overseas Filipinos influence the voting choices of three adult voters back home, these overseas Filipinos can affect about 15 million votes sufficient to vote into office a new president, vice president and senators.
Another phenomenon – an entirely new one – now also offers a potentially significant boost of overseas Filipinos to the 2022 elections. The series of motorcades, meet-ups and other mass actions across the country by Robredo supporters is now sweeping across Filipino communities in different countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and North America.
In Hong Kong, for instance, several pro-Robredo groups have staged a series of meet-ups, hiking and other activities in different districts.
In Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar in the Middle East and in major cities in Canada, meet-ups and picnic-type gatherings in public parks, as well as caravans in California in the US, are gathering momentum in support of Robredo. Presumably, Robredo supporters overseas are likely to ask their family members back home to vote for the vice president.
Hong Kong’s historically large Ilocano contingent has done little to campaign for Bongbong Marcos except via posts on Facebook. Just like in the Philippines, Robredo and Marcos are widely regarded among Hong Kong’s 300,000-strong Filipino community as principal protagonists in the 2022 poll. The two camps are sharply divided, and this is amply reflected by occasionally acrimonious posts and exchanges on Facebook.
The great passion being shown by avid supporters of Robredo and Marcos in Hong Kong, and that of other presidential contenders in different countries are likely to be relayed to their kin in the Philippines. For instance, Rene Pacelo who now lives on the suburbs of Toronto, Canada with his wife and adult children roots for Moreno for president and is likely to ask his siblings and other kin back home to vote for the Manila mayor.
The extent to which overseas Filipinos can influence the outcome of major developments in the country, such as national elections, is unlikely to be determined easily months after the May poll. But an empirical study into this and its findings will most certainly be of great interest to many people, especially to those who nurture dreams of becoming president in 2028.
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