The La Niña will likely start in October and may last until the first quarter of 2022, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.
La Niña is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and may bring above-normal rainfall conditions in many areas.
“Posible na sa month of October magsimula ang La Niña with around 70 to 80 percent chance (It is possible that the La Niña will start in the month of October with around 70 to 80 percent chance),” weather specialist Benison Estareja said.
“Maaring magtagal ang La Niña hanggang sa first quarter of 2022 (The La Niña is likely to last until the first quarter of 2022),” he added.
Above-normal rainfall
With the threat of the La Niña, above-normal rainfall conditions may affect most parts of the country in October.
These areas include Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Caraga Region, and few areas in Cagayan Valley, Western and Central Visayas, and Southern Mindanao.
“Ibig sabihin, kung ano ang nararanasan ng mga nabanggit na lugar, for the month of October mas higit pa na ulan yung posible nilang maranasan (This means, that the rainfall conditions experienced in areas we mentioned, they may experience more rains in October),” Estareja said.
Tropical cyclones
The weather specialist said two to three tropical cyclones may affect the country in October and November, while one to two cyclones is expected in December.
“For the month of October, mas mataas na yung chance na nagla-landfall na ang mga bagyo (the chance of the cyclones making landfall are higher),” Estareja said, adding that it may make landfall in Luzon or over Eastern Visayas.
But he noted that there is also the possibility that the cyclones will recurve if it enters the country’s monitoring area through the northern portion of the Philippine Sea.
Tropical depression spotted
Meanwhile, the state weather bureau is currently monitoring a tropical depression outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), and was last spotted 2,370 kilometers east of Visayas.
But there is a low chance that it will enter the PAR based on the latest assessment, Estareja said, and may recurve over the weekend.
Weather forecast
In its 4 a.m weather bulletin, PAGASA said the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently affecting Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao.
Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the ITCZ may affect Western Visayas and Palawan in the next several hours.
As for Metro Manila and the rest of the country, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may be experienced.