OCTA: Metro Manila’s average daily COVID-19 cases may dip to 2,000 by October

The average daily coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infections in Metro Manila may reach as low as 2,000 new cases by next month, the OCTA Research said Thursday, Sept. 23.

Catholic devotees stand outside the Minor Basilica of the Black Nazarene as they attend a Sunday mass during the fourth day of the Alert Level 4 implementation in the Metro Manila. (Ali Vicoy)

OCTA fellow Professor Guido David said the estimated daily average of cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may be at around 4,000 cases by the end of September.

“By October, baka nasa 2,000 to 3,000 na lang ang daily average natin (our daily average may only be at around 2,000 to 3,000 cases),” David said in a public briefing.

Meanwhile, the expert said that the positivity rate of the metropolis has been decreasing.

“Bumababa na yung positivity rate natin sa Metro Manila (The positivity rate in Metro Manila is declining),” David said.

“Pero sa buong bansa, hindi pa masyadong bumababa kasi may mga regions na nagkakaroon pa rin ng pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso (But nationwide, it has not decreased much because there are regions that are still experiencing an increase in the number of cases),” he added.

Also on Thursday, the independent research group reported that the COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila further decreased to 0.99 from the previous 1.03.

David pointed out that the region’s one-week growth rate decreased to -20 percent based on their analysis of the data from the Department of Health (DOH) as of Sept. 22.

“Gusto nating linawin na nagsisimula pa lang yung pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso (We want to clarify that the decline in the number of cases is just starting),” he said.

“May kataasan pa rin yung bilang ng kaso kaya kailangan patuloy pa rin yung pagsunod natin sa health protocols (The number of cases is still high so we still need to continue to follow the health protocols),” he added.