The number of daily new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases nationwide may not reach the 30,000 mark, the OCTA Research said.
But OCTA fellow Prof. Guido David said in a public briefing Monday, Aug. 30, that new infections in the country may exceed over 20,000 cases per day by September.
“Yung bilang ng kaso, maaaring humigit siya sa 20,000 cases per day lalo na greater than one pa yung reproduction number sa buong bansa (The number of cases may reach more than 20,000 cases per day especially that the reproduction number in the whole country is greater than one),” David said.
According to the David, the country’s reproduction number, which refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, currently hovers at 1.37.
“Pero hindi pa naman natin nakikita na tataas siya na malayo sa 20,000. Maaaring humigit siya doon pero kung hanggang 30,000, wala pa naman yan sa nakikita natin ngayon (But we are not seeing that it will rise far beyond 20,000. It may be more than that but if it will go up to 30,000, that's not what we are seeing right now),” he said
“Kung magkakaroon ng downward trend sa Metro Manila, mag-peak na rin ang bilang ng kaso natin sa below 25,000 (If there is a downward trend in cases in Metro Manila, the number of cases will also peak below 25,000),” he added.
The independent research group projected that the number of new cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may decrease next month.
“Based on our projections, baka bumaba na to less than one yung reproduction number. So ibig sabihin bababa na yung bilang ng kaso pagdating of September (the reproduction number may drop to less than one. So it means that the number of cases will decrease by September),” David said.
“Pero sa ngayon, dahil hindi pa siya bumababa ng less than one, tumataas pa yung bilang ng kaso pero bumagal na yung growth rate (But so far, because it has not dropped to less than one, the number of cases is still increasing but the growth rate has slowed down),” he added.
The expert said Metro Manila’s reproduction number dipped to 1.47 from 1.90 in the previous weeks.
Malaki na yung binaba niya at nakikita naman natin maaaring umabot na siya sa less than 1 pagdating ng kalagitnaan ng September, by mga Sept. 13 to 14 (It has already dropped a lot and we can see that it may decrease to less than one by mid-September, by about Sept. 13 to 14),” he said.
Effects of 2-week ECQ
OCTA fellow Prof. Ranjit Rye credited the decreases in the region’s reproduction number to the imposition of a two-week enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) recently.
But he hopes that the modified ECQ that is currently imposed over the metropolis could sustain the downward trend of the reproduction number.
“Yung ating MECQ medyo maluwag. Kailangan nating higpitan ng konti lalo na yung pag enforce ng minimum public health standards (Our MECQ is a bit relaxed. We need to tighten a little, especially the enforcement of minimum public health standards),” Rye said.
Health standards compliance down
Citing the results of their latest survey, the research fellow lamented that there is a decline in the observance of the minimum public health standards.
“Ang nakita namin, nagdecline talaga yung practice ng minimum public health standards, yung frequency ng pagsuot ng face shield, face mask, social distancing, pag hugas ng kamay (What we saw was that the practice of minimum public health standards such as the frequency of wearing face shield, face mask, social distancing, and hand washing, really declined),” Rye said.
“Nakikita natin na isang area ito na kailangan nating i-improve (We see that this is an area that we need to improve),” he added.