The increase in the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Cebu City and its nearby areas is slowing down, according to independent group OCTA Research.
“The surge in Cebu City and nearby municipalities, which is the worst COVID-19 surge in the area since the start of the pandemic, is winding down,” OCTA said in its report Thursday, Aug. 19.
Report for Cebu 08.19.21. Cebu City surge slowing down, R = 1.29. Cases will likely be on a downward trend by first week of September. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @FEBC_ph @UNTVNewsRescue @smninews @dwiz882 @BomboradyoCebu @inquirerdotnet @DZMMTeleRadyo @ABSCBNNews @PTVph pic.twitter.com/D7w8vWUOoB
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 19, 2021
In its latest monitoring report, OCTA said that Cebu City’s reproduction number, which refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, was at 1.29.
“Although the situation may still change, the current trends indicate that the reproduction number may decrease to below 1 by the first week of September,” experts said, adding that “his would mean that new cases will possibly be on a downward trend by then.”
OCTA reported that the average daily new cases in Cebu City was 300 cases from Aug. 12 to 18, with a one-week growth rate of 9 percent.
The group noted that similar trends were observed in nearby areas of Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu.
Cebu City’s positivity rate was measured at 21 percent for the period of Aug. 11 to 17.
Experts pointed out that Cebu City (29.17) and Lapu-Lapu (29.89) had “critical” level of incidence or average daily attack rate (ADAR) per 100,000 population.
On the other hand, the localities of Mandaue (24.49), Talisay (16.55), Consolacion (21.83), Liloan (21.15), Minglanilla (17.65), Carcar (16.49), and Toledo City (11.06) had “high” levels of incidence rate.
Cebu City was still in critical level in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy rate, while its hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients was at high level, OCTA said.
Hospital bed occupancies in Lapu-Lapu and Carcar were at critical levels, while Consolacion had a spike in new cases, it added.