The Department of Energy (DOE) is painting a scenario that electricity supply will be enough during the election period next year, but the supply-demand outlook it presented to media has not taken into account critical factors yet – including the recurring forced outages of power plants, the gas restriction in Malampaya production, as well as possible spillover or delays in the timeframe of preventive maintenance shutdowns of power plants.
Energy Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella admitted that the power supply forecasts given were still anchored on a “base case scenario” and it will still be updated in the coming months –primarily with more definite numbers that will be coming out based on the details on the shutdown schedule of power plants; the expected de-rating in the generation of power facilities; as well as other elements that will be affecting the power system, including bottlenecks in the transmission lines and fuel dilemmas.
The energy official also hinted possible delays in power plant maintenance activities because of the restricted entry of the required foreign consultants as well as on the arrival of their equipment and spare parts – given the lingering protocols being enforced by the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The reason why there are thinning of reserves as far as the April-May and June is concerned, especially May on the week of 19, 20, 21,22 and 23 – that’s the time when demand will go up in 2022... and there’s also lack of water for the hydro plants,” Fuentebella said.
When asked if the 2,000-megawatt reserve projection in the week of the May 2022 elections will not be wiped out if there will be simultaneous outages in power plants, the energy official failed to dodge that there’s a real danger that supply will be razed to the ground and rotating blackouts may occur.
The DOE stated that it has yet to sort out also other concerns – including depletion concern in Malampaya gas output; as well as the lapse of the gas sale and purchase agreement (GSPA) for the 1,200MW Ilijan plant which will happen by June next year.
There is no certainty yet that the Ilijan plant can fully shift to diesel fuel – and which entity will be operating it, because even its build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract will also be expiring next year. Further, there is no definitive plan also if it will be turned over to South Premiere Power Corporation (SPPC) of the San Miguel group or ownership might revert first to government via Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation (PSALM) while dispute on capacity payment issues is still pending for resolution in the Courts.
On the delays relating to arrival of foreign consultants for power plant maintenance and in the implementation of power projects, Fuentebella indicated that they will be closely coordinating with the power companies – and they will have to do more aggressive follow-up on requests with the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and the Bureau of Immigration, chiefly on the issuance of working visas for these consultants.
“We are coordinating closely and monitoring the situation-- because again, we have to make sure that we maintain this or improve it. And how do we do that? Through proper coordination and preparation,” the energy official stressed.
The other key stakeholders in the power sector noted they will closely collaborate with the DOE on preparations as well as provision of solutions to concerns that will cause snag in power supply reliability and sufficiency during the election period.
Meralco Vice President Joe Zaldarriaga said “we have contingency measures in place in case there will be outages during the time of the elections and before the actual elections. We make sure that all our facilities are ready to respond to any emergency, we have crews who are ready to respond.”
He added the utility firm has generating sets, and “we are working closely with the entire energy family to ensure that the Meralco franchise area will be brownout free.”
For National Electrification Administration (NEA), Deputy Administrator Artis Nikki Tortola conveyed that “we’ll be continuously assisting the electric coops and at the same time, monitor them just like before -- the ECs have been doing maintenance activities even before the elections in order to make sure that reliability during elections are maximized.”
Atty. Anne Estorco-Montelibano, president of the Philippine Independent Power Producers Association (PIPPA), also emphasized that on the part of the generation companies (GenCos), “We guarantee that we will comply with policies and we coordinate with industry players -- that’s NGCP and distribution utilities.”
State-run National Power Corporation (NPC) similarly pointed out that it will ensure reliable operations of facilities at its Small Power Utilities Group (SPUG) domain; and it is targeting to deploy power barges and will be renting generating units if needed. ###