The Department of Health (DOH) said that experts studying the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation in the country have projected that Metro Manila may see up to 30,000 active infections by the end of September.
DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that this was the projection made by modeling teams FASSSTER and Autumn.
“We had our experts analyzed, we have the FASSSTER and Autumn group, ito yung tumutulong sa atin na modelers para makapagbigay sa atin ng forecast (these modelers give us a forecast). They give us a forecast kung saan may mga scenarios,” she said on Saturday, July 31.
According to the DOH, these groups are composed of experts with experience in the field of disease modeling, health informatics, among others. Based on the FASSSTER website, it "aims to provide a user-friendly tool for modeling disease spreads in the Philippines to aid in the DOH's disease surveillance efforts."
Based on their projections, Metro Manila may have 18,000 to 30,000 “total active cases” by Sept. 30, 2021 “with the restrictions implemented,” including the imposition of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), said Vergeire.
“Please take note that these are initial projections and DOH with our experts, have provided comments and recommendations to further improve on this,” said the DOH official.
“Ang sinasabi natin, this lockdown will help us prepare the system but it is not going to control the spread. Kailangan pa rin po natin iprepara ang sistema, gawin natin ang mga dapat gawin para maprevent ang further spread ng Delta variant na ito (What we are saying, this lockdown will help us prepare the system but it is not going to control the spread. We still need to prepare the system, let's do what needs to be done to prevent the further spread of this Delta variant),” she added.
Based on the DOH COVID-19 tracker, the total active cases in Metro Manila is currently at 12,108 as of July 31.