The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Tourism Economics last night (May 26) released an optmistic long-term view for post-COVID-19 passenger demand recovery as people remain eager to travel.
This year, global passenger numbers can recover to 52 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019), they predicted.
In 2022, global passenger numbers can recover to 88 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels and in 2023 global passenger numbers, might surpass pre-COVID-19 levels at 105 percent.
By 2030, global passenger numbers can grow to 5.6 billion, although that will still be 7 percent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast, with an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to the pandemic.
However, beyond 2030, IATA expects air travel to slow down due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth of 3.2 percent between 2019 and 2039.
IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8 percent.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow by an annual average of 3 percent between 2019 and 2039.
This is due to the expected strength of domestic markets like China, with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation," IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh maintained.
"We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel," he stressed.
"The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates," Walsh urged.
"At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability," he went on.
"Both challenges require governments and industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough,” he underscored.
While the damage of the COVID-19 crisis will be felt for years to come, people have retained their need and desire to travel, according to IATA.
Any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings.
The most recent example was the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
The economy is strong and can fuel growth in travel. February 2021 industrial production levels stood at 2% above February 2019 levels.
Consumers have accumulated savings in the lockdowns, in some cases exceeding 10% of GDP.
Vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50 percent of the population by the third quarter of 2021.
“This should be a clarion call to governments to get ready," says Walsh.
"The travel and tourism sector is a major contributor to GDP. People’s livelihoods are at stake. To avoid greater long-term economic and social damage, restart must not be delayed," he concluded.