The Philippines is the “clear laggard” in Asia, Moody’s Analytics declared, noting that its economy will likely return to its pre-pandemic levels only by the end of next year.
Decentralized health advice alongside the sluggish COVID-19 vaccine rollout is denting the nation’s recovery, an analysis by the US-based economic and financial think tank said on Monday, May 24.
In the analysis “The Philippines Struggles to Shake the Pandemic,” Moody's Analytics said the country, which before the heath crisis was among the fastest growing economies in the region, has fallen behind on recovery compared with its Asian peers.
“China, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam have returned to previous output levels, while Indonesia and Thailand are on track to return this year,” Moody’s Analytics said. “This makes the Philippines the clear laggard in Asia.”
Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Katrina Ell and Associate Economist Dave Chia noted that the Philippines has had difficulty containing new local infections, the latest of which was the spike in early April.
The two analysts said a contributor to the country’s inability to control local infections in the earlier months came from the healthcare system being centralized as local government leaders are the ones responsible for the health system, rather than the national government.
“As a result, there were not consistent policies and rigorousness around contact tracing, funding, and quarantine measures for those infected and their close contacts,” they said.
Moreover, the Philippines has a high percent of positive results in COVID-19 testing, implying that a relatively high degree of cases are going undetected, the analysis said.
Data from Apple Mobility Trends and Google Trends showed that the Philippines is also far from back to pre-pandemic levels of activity amid elevated infections and government orders to stay home since late March in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
In addition, Ell said Chia said the Philippines lags most of its neighbours in its local vaccination drive due to issues around securing sufficient vaccination doses. However, this problem has eased somewhat with the government recently increasing its stores.
Also, there is vaccine hesitancy due to misinformation and lasting scars from the 2016 dengue fever vaccine that put children’s health at risk, the report said.
On Sunday, the National Taskforce (NTF) Against COVID-19 reported that there are over 4.1 million administered vaccine doses. Of the total, 3.15 are for the first dose, while 949,939 were for the second dose.
Moody’s Analytics is projecting that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 5.3 percent this year, below the government’s newly revised target of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent.
“The Philippines is not forecast to return to pre-pandemic output levels (defined as the December quarter of 2019) until the final quarter of 2022,” it said.
The sluggish economic recovery paired with relatively strict lockdown measures has increased inequality, Moody’s Analytics said.
“Those in higher-paying jobs tend to be office workers, and they have been able to transition to working from home, while lower-income workers have not had that option. The unemployment rate has increased as a result, particularly at the lower-income segment,” the analysts said.