The average number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila is projected to drop below 2,000 cases per day by May 14, according to experts studying the pandemic in the country.
In its latest monitoring report, OCTA Research Team said the reproduction number of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) further decreased to 0.69.
“The NCR is expected to average less than 2,000 new cases per day by May 14,” OCTA said in its report issued Saturday, May 8.
The group reported that the average number of new cases per day in the metropolis was 2,347 from May 1 to 7, citing the data from the Department of Health (DOH) COVID-19 data drop.
“The current daily average is 58 percent lower compared to the peak of the surge (March 29 to April 4),” the OCTA report stated.
The independent research group noted that there is “a continued downward trajectory” for new infections in the metropolis, saying that the number of new cases was at the same level as March 11 to 17.
“The one-week growth rate in the NCR was -27 percent from the previous week, marking the third consecutive week with more than 20 percent decrease in cases,” the OCTA report said.
Likewise, the positivity rate in the metropolis over the past week was measured at 15 percent, from an average of 21,866 tests conducted daily.
Healthcare utilization rate
On the other hand, hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 cases in NCR decreased to 51 percent while intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy dropped to 69 percent, below the 70-percent critical level.
“However, ICU utilization for COVID-19 remained high, with 846 ICUs in the NCR occupied,” the group pointed out.
While there has been a downward trend in cases in NCR, OCTA said there was an increase in new cases observed in the neighboring Calamba, Laguna.
Areas of concern
Meanwhile, the group has raised concern over the situation in some provinces outside the NCR-plus bubble following an increase in new infections recently.
OCTA has considered Cagayan de Oro City in Misamis Oriental, Puerto Princesa City in Palawan and Bacolod City in Negros Occidental as “areas of concern” due to a rise in new cases.
“Hospital bed and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 remained high in Baguio City, Tuguegarao, Cainta, Antipolo, Zamboanga City and Calamba,” the group said.