DAVAO CITY - A peacebuilding organization warned that the recent clashes between the government's military forces and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao is only a preview of more violence in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
"If the violence continues, the Bangsamoro may experience an attack on a political or cultural center, in a pattern similar to the chain of events that led to the capture of Butig and Marawi City, in 2016 and 2017 respectively, by the Maute Group in Lanao del Sur," the International Alert Philippines said in a statement on Monday, March 29.
Alert noted that "the firefight that began on March 18 in Datu Saudi Ampatuan town was the latest episode involving the military and the BIFF, as monitored by Alert since January through its Critical Events Monitoring System that receives on-the-ground reports from local contacts."
"The military claimed it attacked BIFF forces under the command of Kagi Karialan when the BIFF tried to violently thwart the establishment of a Joint Peace and Security Team in Brgy Kitango, Datu Saudi Ampatuan," it said.
It also noted that the BIFF-Karialan faction "has escalated its armed attacks in recent months, targeting indigenous groups including the Teduray in other municipalities such as South Upi."
According to Francisco Lara, Jr., Senior Peace and Conflict Adviser of International Alert Philippines, the incident "may be an effort to demonstrate the Karialan group’s superiority over other extremist groups in the area and hence gain more recruits and support, or it can be part of a ‘slow burn’ or a gradual yet deliberate escalation of violence that leads to a major political battle before or during the 2022 elections."
Alert said that the violence perpetrated by extremist groups "such as the BIFF and the shadow economies in drugs and weapons will combine and feed into the violence surrounding these political contests."
It added that the BIFF will continue to be a threat as the group continues to receive funding not just from other armed groups but also from "local politicians, businessmen, and violent entrepreneurs involved in deadly shadow economies."
"Reports from our early response network reveal how some local politicians are orchestrating violent incidents in Datu Saudi Ampatuan and nearby towns to depict the BTA (Bangsamoro Transition Authority) as ineffective in improving the security in this conflict-ridden area and hence weaken the legitimacy and authority of the Bangsamoro transition government,” Lara said.
“Many politicians are interested in seizing control of the BTA and the BARMM if elections are held as scheduled in 2022. Others are aware that the MILF is also planning to field candidates against them in their local bailiwicks,” he added.
Alert added that the government forces and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) "will need to show greater resolve in neutralizing the BIFF and other extremist groups before the elections."
"For the MILF, it will mean disregarding kinship ties in going after the BIFF, even if it leads to internal fissures," it said.
As provided under the Republic Act 11054 or the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), the first election in BARMM shall be held in May 2022 synchronized with the national and local elections. However, efforts to extend the three-year transition for another three years are now being undertaken.
In his report to the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) on March 25, Bangsamoro Chief Minister Ahod Ebrahim said they have conducted a roundtable discussion with the House of Representatives “to shed light on issues, nuances, and the rationale behind the proposed bills extending the transition period.”
Ebrahim said they also met with the leadership of both houses of Congress and other lawmakers since the extension requires amendments to the BOL.
In a previous statement, BARMM Spokesman and Local Government Minister Naguib Sinarimbo explained that the extension of the transition period is for the full implementation of the peace agreement signed between the Government of the Philippines and the MILF.
“We should all contribute to ensuring that peace agreements’ dream of creating a peaceful progressive Bangsamoro is achieved. The only way to achieve that is to postpone the 2022 election at the regional level, and ensure that by the next three years we are able to complete all the work that needs to be done, so that the peace agreement is complied with, and the organic law is fully implemented,” Sinarimbo said.