The OCTA Research Team sees the new COVID variants as the reason for the spike in cases in Metro Manila and several parts of the country.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said his group saw a rapid increase in Metro Manila’s reproduction rate (R0) which is now at 1.4. Last January 10, it was at 1.17.
In Pasay City, which is now considered a hotspot, the R0 is at 2.
“Ang dahilan diyan, pinapalagay namin, na ang nagda-drive diyan yung UK (United Kingdom) variant) or yung South African variant (The reason for this, we are assuming, is that the UK variant or the South African variant is driving the increase in cases),” David told DZMM Teleradyo in an interview Wednesday.
David said the group’s assumption is based on comparison from other countries where the UK or South African variant was detected and also had a spike in cases.
“Ngayon, totoo…kulang pa ‘yung ebidensya natin kasi konti pa ‘yung genome sequencing. Pero ang palagay namin, sa nakikita natin, pag-kinompare natin sa ibang bansa na may UK variant or South African variant, mabilis ‘yung pagkalat ng cases. Kaya namin pinalagay na dahil ‘yan sa variant (Right now, it’s true…that we still lack evidence because only a few samples have been sent for genome sequencing. But we think, based on what we’re seeing right now in the country, we can compare it to other countries with UK variant or South African variant which also had a spread of cases, that’s why we’re assuming that this is because of the variants),” he said.
Based on data from the Department of Health, the country has six South African variant cases and 87 UK variant cases as of March 2.
In Metro Manila, David said the center of the virus is Pasay City and Northern Metro Manila, particularly Navotas and Malabon.
The expert also said cases have been increasing in Caloocan and Valenzuela.
The attack rate in Pasay, Makati, several parts of Taguig, and Manila, has also increased, David added.
He urged the government to strictly implement border control to further prevent the spread of the virus.
“Yung border controls, isa yan sa naging problema natin in the past. In fact, ang daming nakapasok na variants kasi di ganon ka strict yung ating border control as international travelers, kung strict ‘man, yung implementaion medyo ang kulang. Sa local ganon din (Border control has been one of our problems in the past. In fact, many carriers of the new variant were able to enter the country because our border controls are not that strict for international travelers, or if it is strict, it's not implemented properly. The same goes for the local setting),” he said.