The shortfall in the supply of pork has yet to be fully addressed, and now the Department of Agriculture (DA) is also seeing a potential deficit in the supply of broiler meat by the end of this year.
This followed after a group of local producers has raised concerns about a “crisis” currently being experienced in the poultry industry.
In a text exchange, Reildrin Morales, the new director of DA’s Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), said there is now a looming shortage in the supply of day-old chicks (DOC), which are raised to become broilers, because of the “controls made in the breeder population last year.”
“The price of chicken went down last year because of COVID-19 related measures, which forced closures of markets (hotels, restaurants, fast food, etc.) that is why breeders cut down their production. We will sit down on this matter as early as now,” Morales said.
Based on data obtained by Business Bulletin, the DA has drawn three possible scenarios for the supply of broiler meat this year, one of which shows a potential deficit of 50,168 metric tons (MT), which is equivalent to being 12-days short of supply by year-end.
This will happen, according to the data, if the supply remains low at 1.45 million MT and the demand goes up to about 1.50 million MT.
In another scenario, the DA is seeing supply to stay the same and demand at the expected 1.34 million MT for an excess of 111,652 MT of broiler meat in carcass that will be good for 27 days of supply.
If the demand ends up lower than expected, or around 1.17 million MT, the surplus will be much higher at 273,472 MT or 67 days.
But since the government is already slowly reopening the economy further with more public establishments allowed to re-open, the first scenario is more likely to happen.
Morales even said that higher demand for poultry meat is expected due to the low supply of pork, which was badly hit by the fatal animal disease African Swine Fever (ASF).
In a separate interview, United Broiler Raisers Association (UBRA) President Bong Inciong described the obtaining situation as a “crisis” given that “the substitution pressure from pork and the current issues with DOC supply.”
Based on UBRA’s weekly monitoring, the farm-gate price of DOC is now at an all-time high of P48 to P50 apiece, compared to its price of P14 to P20 apiece during the first weeks of 2020.
Inciong said it is likely that the country’s chicken production will remain down during the first half of this year.
“Anecdotal information is that there was difficulty in the loading of parent stocks in the second and third quarters of 2020. There were also cancellations in the loading of replacement flocks. Add six to eight months, then you have a shortage of day-old chicks,” Inciong said.
Latest data from Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the country’s total chicken production from October to December 2020 was estimated at 484,360 MT, liveweight, which is lower by 7.9 percent compared with the previous year’s same quarter output of 526,100 MT, liveweight.
Compared with their levels in the same period of a year ago, 12 regions also posted decreases in production during the period, with CALABARZON recording the biggest decline of 17.0 percent.
In particular, this region registered a production of 81,660 MT, liveweight this quarter, from the 98,390 MT, liveweight in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Morales said the DA will meet with the broiler sector this week to address the challenges in poultry production.
For his part, Inciong said the government should lift the price ceiling of P160 per kilogram (/kg) on chicken.
“If they still insist on P160.00, then they should subsidize the retailers accordingly. This is in fairness to the sector as the hog sector is now being subsidized,” Inciong said, referring to the transport subsidy that the DA is now offering hog raisers.