BAGUIO CITY – The transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the city had slowed down based on the latest data, according to a team of statisticians from the University of the Philippines Baguio (UPB).
In its latest Exploratory Data Analysis submitted to the City Health Services Office and the City Public Information Office, the UPB Department of Mathematics and Computer Science team said this was based on the latest values of the time-varying case reproduction number or Rt.
Rt is defined as “the average number of secondary cases where an infected individual would transmit the infection as long as the conditions remained as they were at a time.”
An Rt of more than 1 means that the epidemic is “out of control” while an Rt of less than 1 means there is a “deceleration in transmissions at a time.”
As of Nov. 17, 2020, the Rt value of COVID cases in the city was pegged at 0.5696297 (and) the lower and upper limit values at 95 percent are 0.48646637 and 0.6617732, respectively, according to the team.
“This means that there is sufficient evidence of deceleration of transmission of COVID-19 infection in Baguio City,” the team composed of Professors Rizavel C. Addawe, Jhunas Paul Viernes, Wilfredo Dizon Jr., Shielden Grail Domilies, Criselda Libatique, Joseph Ludwin Marigmen, Raya Elaine Gueco, and Donnabel Tubera-Panes, said.
The City Health Services Office reported that as of Nov. 18, the number of active cases in the city is down to 17.26 percent of the total number of cases while recoveries increased to 81.34 percent.
Data showed that from Nov.19 to 25, the city recorded a low COVID-19 cases to 104, compared to 198 cases from Nov.12 to 18, while high recoveries were noted from 332 to 385, respectively.