‘Sustained efforts needed,’ says UP research team; ‘flattening of curve doesn’t mean COVID-19 crisis is over’


While the curve of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infections in the country has flattened, experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) urged the government to carefully review the lifting of restrictions and opening of some establishments to sustain the momentum in fighting the pandemic.

(Keith Bacongco / FILE PHOTO / MANILA BULLETI)

Professor Ranjit Rye, founder of the UP Octa Research Team, also reminded the public to not be too complacent in observing strict health protocols as the flattening of the curve does not mean that the heath crisis is over.

"Yung number of new cases na dumadagdag ay kumokonti na pero hindi ibig sabihin nito ay wala nang COVID. Dapat ay mas mapaigting pa yung ating pag-iingat. Hindi ito panahon para magpabaya at mag-kumpyansa," Rye said in an interview.

(The number of new cases is declining but it does not mean that the COVID is not there anymore. Our precautions should be even stricter. This is not the time to neglect and be over confident.)

"Lalo nating siguraduhing sundan ang basic health protocols na sinasabi ng gobyerno tulad ng pagsusuot ng face mask, face shield, pagkakaroon ng physical distancing at proper hygiene. Malaking bagay ang magagawa ng indibidwal laban sa COVID-19," he added.

(We should make sure to follow the basic health protocols of the government such as wearing of face mask, face shield, observing physical distancing and proper hygiene. Individuals can help to combat COVID-19.)

Rye pointed out that the current positive trend his team is observing can change next week if the government and the public relaxed in sustaining the efforts from the re-imposition of modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila and nearby regions recently.

"Yung pagbubukas ng ibang establishment, ng mga gym, pag-expand ng seating  sa mga restaurant, kailangang pag-aralan mabuti ng gobyerno 'yan. Mahirap dahil ang kalaban natin ay COVID-19 kaya importante na lahat tayo ay coordinated at siguraduhin na ang pagbubukas ng ilang establishment ay hindi makakadagdag sa mga kaso," he emphasized.

(The opening of other establishments, of gyms, expanding seating in restaurants, the government needs to study that carefully. It is difficult because our opponent is COVID-19 so it is important that we are all coordinated and make sure that the opening of some establishments does not add to the cases.)

According to Rye, implementing localized lockdown, as well as the continuous coordination of the government and the public in ensuring that safety and health protocols were being observed would further reduce the already declining daily cases of COVID-19.

The UP Octa Research Team, an independent and interdisciplinary research group studying the outbreak in the country, earlier said on Sunday that the curve of COVID-19 infections already flattened, which means the daily case growth rate has declined.

The group explained that from the seven-day average of 4,174 cases three weeks ago, it is now down to at least 3,400.

It was also the research team that announced last month that the country's COVID-19 curve may flatten by end of August or September.

MECQ in Bacolod City

Despite the decline in the number of new cases recorded in a national scale, the research team is recommending to place Bacolod City under a stricter lockdown due to an upward trend in its COVID-19 cases which has reached to over 100 per day.

"Nakikita namin over the past two weeks na medyo malala ang kaso sa Bacolod City. Nananawagan kami sa IATF, sa NTF na baka kailangang i-revisit at i-reconsider, kung pwede ay ilagay sila under MECQ kasi nasa 160 cases a day na po at pataas pa ng pataas," he bared.

(We have seen over the past two weeks that the case in Bacolod City is quite serious. We call on the IATF, the NTF, that it may need to be revisited and reconsidered, if possible, to place the city under MECQ because there's at least 160 cases a day and still increasing.)

President Duterte has maintained the general community quarantine (GCQ) over Bacolod City, as well as in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Batangas, and Tacloban City.

Only Iligan City was placed under MECQ until the end of September due to limited hospital capacity in the area, while the rest of the Philippines is under modified general community quarantine (MGCQ).

"Itong Bacolod City, gusto naming mabigyan ng atensyon dahil ang mga kaso ay pataas pa at mapupuno na ang mga ospital. Baka kailangan na maisara muna saglit paga mag-heal. Tulungan natin ang mga kapatid natin sa Bacolod City lalo na ang mga health workers nila," Rye said.

(We want to pay attention to Bacolod City because the cases are still increasing and the hospitals will be full. It may need to be closed for a while to heal. Let us help our brothers and sisters in Bacolod City especially their health workers.)