By DERCO ROSAL
London-based Capital Economics expects that Southeast Asian central banks, including the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), will likely continue lowering interest rates in the coming months due to anticipated sluggish economic growth and continued low inflation.
“With GDP [gross domestic product] growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months,” Capital Economics said.
In an Oct. 29 report, Capital Economics said that the country’s economic growth declined in the second quarter of 2024 driven primarily by a drop in exports.
The country’s GDP grew by 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.1 percent.
Thus, Gareth Leather, Capital Economics senior Asia economist, expects this “weakness to continue over the coming quarters.”
In September, the country’s inflation dropped below the BSP’s two to four percent target, driven by significant declines in food and transport prices.
Earlier this month, the BSP lowered its borrowing costs for a second time this 2024 in response to the continued low inflation.
With this, Capital Economics said it is “expecting another cut at its final meeting of the year in December.”
Leather noted that other Southeast Asian countries are experiencing inflationary pressures, making it unlikely they will cut rates this year like the Philippines.
In many parts of Asia, including the Philippines, a weaker dollar and a Trump presidency are unlikely to significantly affect central bank decisions, Leather further said.
This means that a “stronger US dollar would reflect the possibility of a less aggressive Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] rate cuts in view of the possible inflationary effects and protectionist policy with a Trump presidency,” Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) said.
“Any Trump victory could lead to higher US inflation amid possible trade war that could lead to higher tariff rates on imports from China and other countries, tighter immigration rules that could increase US labor costs, deficit spending on possible tax cuts, economic stimulus, among others,” Ricafort added.
Similar to the first Trump administration, a Trump return would likely result in more protectionist policies, potentially slowing global trade, foreign direct investments (FDIs), overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances, and exports, Ricafort noted.
Investors, however, have already considered the chance of Donald Trump winning and have adjusted their trading decisions based on that expectation, Ricafort said.
“Thus, there is a risk of less aggressive rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks around the world,” he noted.
However, if Trump loses the election, “the U.S. central bank and other central banks around the world would become more aggressive in cutting policy rates amid less inflationary pressures, narrower budget deficits, and less protectionist policies in the U.S.”
More aggressive Fed rate cuts could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar against major global currencies, the economist explained.
Meanwhile, Ricafort said that markets have already responded to the potential for a Donald Trump victory by pushing the US dollar and 10-year Treasury yields to near three-month highs, while the race against Kamala Harris remains tight ahead of next week’s presidential election.