The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that El Niño did not have a significant impact on the sugarcane harvest in the country.
In a recent report, the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revised its forecast for raw sugar production, increasing it by 50,000 metric tons for the current marketing year from September 2023 to August 2024.
The USDA report stated that sugarcane was not affected as much as anticipated, contrary to earlier projection of a 10 percent to 15 percent drop in production due to El Niño.
The USDA-FAS has now estimated that Philippine sugar production will reach 1.85 million metric tons, up from an earlier projection of 1.80 million metric tons.
If the revised forecast is achieved, it will be slightly higher than the 1.799 million metric tons produced in the 2022-2023 crop year.
As of March 24, 2024, the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) has reported a raw sugar production of 1.7 million metric tons, with an average weekly production of around 50,000 metric tons.
However, the USDA noted that there are still other factors to consider, such as diversion to ethanol production and milling schedules.
The report also stated that facilities that started milling early will also end early when sugarcane supply becomes low.
Milling is expected to end around the second week of May in some areas.
Meanwhile, the USDA said that sugar production for crop year 2024-2025 is expected to remain steady at 1.85 million metric tons, despite the drought that has affected the major sugar-producing region of Negros Occidental.
The ongoing El Niño has also led to stunted sugarcane growth in some farms that lack irrigation facilities.
However, the USDA has noted that the expansion of sugarcane areas by farmers and higher sugar prices in the market would help offset these challenges.