43% cut in greenhouse gas emissions needed by 2030 to limit global temperature rise

Bolder steps and accelerated actions are required to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 43% onward to 2030 so the world can keep pace with keeping global temperature rise within the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, being the holy grail of the Paris Agreement, according to a new report released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The United Nations report stipulated that “national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” adding that “even with increased efforts by some countries, the report shows much more action is needed now to bend the world’s emissions trajectory further downward and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”

The latest science assessment of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) portends that “greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels.”

The climate scientists primarily conveyed “this is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.”

The UN emphasized that by 2030, “emissions are projected to be 2% below 2019 levels, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.”

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell thus noted that the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP 28) which will kick-off in Dubai by the end of this month shall serve as a ‘clear turning point’ for governments, policymakers and industry leaders to frame bolder steps in addressing climate change risks.

“Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them,” he stressed.

Stiell qualified the latest UN report manifests that governments are just currently “taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track.”

The conclusion drawn from the first Global Stocktake at COP28, he said, “is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas and get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Essentially, the stocktake will serve as anchor to the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement  -- known as nationally determined contributions or ‘NDCs’--  and the next ‘accelerated actions’ in addressing the climate crisis shall be put forward by 2025.

Stiell expounded that the “Global Stocktake’ report issued by the UN Climate Change this year “clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries.”

Taking off from that, the UN official indicated that “billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work.”

To a great extent, the UN Climate Change had analyzed the NDCs of at least 195 parties to the Paris Agreement – including 20 new and updated NDCs that had been submitted until September 25 this year.

“In line with the findings from last year’s analysis, today’s report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade,” the UN pointed out.

Stiell, in particular, reckoned that “every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that.”

He added “it’s time to show the massive benefits now of bolder climate action: more jobs, higher wages, economic growth, opportunity and stability, less pollution and better health.”

To gain traction on addressing peaking of emissions before 2030, the UN report sets forth that “the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms.”

Stiell opined that by using the Global Stocktake to plan ahead, “we can make COP28 a game-changer, and provide a springboard for a two-year climate action surge,” with him emphasizing that “we need to rebuild trust in the Paris process, which means delivering on all commitments, particularly on finance, the great enabler of climate action; and ensuring that we are increasing resilience to climate impacts everywhere.”