FINDING ANSWER
At the Senate youth and sports committee that I chaired when I was senator in the late 1980s and early '90s, some of us hoped that an NBA team would eventually emerge the ultimate winner after being down 0-3 in the Finals.
At that time, only around 40 teams found out that a 0-3 deficit was insurmountable in the NBA Finals or even at the conference finals. Now that number is 156. And the 2024 Dallas Mavericks could be destined to be the 157th team.
Of course, fans of the Mavericks are hoping against hope that their team would do what no NBA team has ever done before. Dallas’ blowout win by 38 points in Game 4 to reduce their deficit to 1-3 in the ongoing NBA Finals gives them reason to hope.
Still, the Boston Celtics appears to be on the way to prove that coming out of a 0-3 hole to become champion is impossible, and has always been so since the NBA was founded in 1946. Indeed, the chances of recovering from a 0-3 deficit is 0% while the chances of teams winning the series after having a 3-0 lead has been 100% so far.
But the impossible almost happened last year when the 2023 Miami Heat lost its 3-0 advantage in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. But the Heat eventually recovered when it beat the Celtics 4-3 in Game 7 to become conference champion.
While the history of the NBA is filled with incredible comebacks and underdog stories that defied tremendous odds, the challenge of climbing out of a 0-3 hole to become champion has remained insurmountable. And among the reasons why it is so are the psychological factors.
When a team wins the first three games in a best-of-seven, it means the team has already demonstrated superior form and has gained a psychological advantage over its opponent. With a superior lead of 3-0, the team is filled with so much confidence and has the luxury of absorbing a loss or two without having to worry so much.
In contrast, the team trailing 0-3 must win every subsequent game to hold on to dear life. This puts the team players at an enormous mental disadvantage which can also drain them physically, as they have to exert maximum effort in every game while constantly tackling the stress of sudden death.
Now facing enormous odds, the Mavericks need to hold on to dear life three more times to make NBA history and achieve what has remained elusive for eight decades. Yet the historic feat seems unlikely simply because the Boston Celtics is the winningest team, besides the Los Angeles Lakers, with 17 NBA titles so far.
Holding on to dear life four times in a row to emerge champion has been unheard of in the NBA. But three times or less isn’t impossible. In the history of the seven-game playoff series, teams down 1-3 have a 4.8 percent or 9 in 179 chances of winning the series. It’s much lower – 2.3 percent or 3 in 127 – if the team down 1-3 has to play away from home twice.
Being an 8th seed going against a top seed can also be almost as daunting as being down 0-3. That’s a reason why the 8th-seeded Miami Heat almost failed against the Celtics in last year’s eastern conference.
Climbing out of a 0-3 hole is illogical in the NBA. Teams going down 0-3 are severely outmatched to begin with, unless they deliberately lost for some reason like game-fixing.
To win four straight after being down 0-3 defies logic because being in the Finals – or even in the conference finals – means the two teams are the “best of the best” or are similarly matched at least. Perhaps the only time 0-3 becomes surmountable is this scenario: The best players of a top-seeded team who are all out due to injuries come back at Game 4 to beat the lowest seeded team four times in a row.
It’s only in the Philippines that a team down 0-3 can defy logic. It happened in 2016 when San Miguel became PBA champion. I’m not saying game-fixing or corruption was the culprit. Many agree it was because the team had relied heavily that time on star player June Mar Fajardo who returned from a knee injury only in Game 5.
In the NBA, however, other players usually step up when the best are not around. And coming up the ladder in the playoff games ensures only the superior ones make it. Thus, logic and historical data show the improbability of the 2024 Mavericks emerging champion. Still, hope springs eternal. And I can understand if many Dallas fans hope I might be wrong. ([email protected])