POPCOM: PH sharp decline in fertility rate an opportunity to hasten socio-economic dev't

The sharp decrease in the total fertility rate (TFR) of Filipino women is not a cause for alarm as this could be taken advantage of to hasten socioeconomic development in the country, the Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM) said on Monday, Nov. 14.

The POPCOM was referring to the 2022 result of the National Health Demographic Survey (NDHS) of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA), which was discussed on Nov. 11 in a forum and which stated that the TFR of Filipino women 15- to 49-years old now stands at 1.9 children--which means that each Filipino married woman wants a maximum of two children.

POPCOM Officer- In-Charge Executive Director Lolito R. Tacardon said the current TFR of the Philippines reinforces the PSA’s findings in February this year that the Philippines is now in a “demographic transition" wherein a country has a low level of fertility and mortality.

"The significant decline in total fertility rate offers both an opportunity, as well as a challenge. On one hand, this can be considered as a ‘breakthrough’ for the country’s programs on population and development (POPDEV) as well as family planning, which were instituted more than five decades ago," said Tacardon.

He explained that there were actually more pros than cons on the decline in TFR of married Filipino women.

For instance, he said this could be taken advantage of to reduce poverty and improve labor force participation.

Another one, according to Tacardon, is that this is the time for various sectoral developments to hasten socioeconomic development:

“Focus should now be on ensuring that the quality and capacity of the country’s human resources are enhanced. At the household level, lower fertility also means greater opportunity for personal development of couples and individuals, which can redound to more savings and investments," he said.

As to the fear of labor shortage with the sharp decline in TFR, Tacardon said the Philippines will continue to see a robust labor force at over 63 percent of the population until 2030 or 2035.

As of Nov. 14 this year, the Philippine's population is 110,444,512.

Sharp decline

Based on the data, the Philippine's total fertility rate has been on the downtrend since the 1970s.

From the time when Filipino couples could build or almost build a complete roster for a basketball team before, the average children for Filipino families was at six in the 1970s.

But Tacardon said the decline in TFR they recorded from 2017 to 2022 was the sharpest.

Despite expected increase in the fertility of Filipino women because of impeded access to family planning services during lockdowns and quarantine protocols, as well as the world’s total headcount projected to hit eight billion on Nov. 15, the Philippines was able to register recent population statistics unheard of in years, with fertility numbers plummeting to less than two offspring per woman," the POPCOM statement read.

From 2.7 children in 2017, Tacordan said the figure now stands at 1.9 this year.

The same survey revealed that one in two currently married women said they no longer desire more children, while 17 percent want to delay their next childbirths for two or more years.

Comparable with upper middle-income countries

Tacardon said the Philippines' TFR is now comparable to those of upper middle-income countries’ 1.8 children and Thailand's at 1.5 children.

In the ASEAN region, the Philippines has now the third-lowest after Singapore’s 1.1 children. It is lower than the Asian average of 2.2, and is comparable to Latin America’s and the Caribbean’s, which is at 2.0 children.

The Philippines, however, has lower fertility levels than Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Moving forward

Tacardon encouraged all relevant government institutions, allied sectors and relevant partners to continue implementing and upholding the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act of 2012 and the national population and development program to sustain the gains it has achieved in the past years.

“This demographic situation actually entails a more vigorous and enhanced implementation of relevant strategies to sustain the capacity of couples and individuals to achieve their desired fertility intentions," said Tacardon.

"However, we still have a lot of work before us, such as addressing present concerns on teenage pregnancies, where the numbers are still disturbing. We also need to double-up on our efforts in reducing fertility in rural areas, where the rates are still high," he stressed.

Tacardon was referring to the 2022 NDHS’s findings on teenage pregnancy and motherhood, as five percent of women 15- to 19-years old asked during the survey period said that "they have ever been pregnant."

Among them, 10 percent came from the “poorest households.”

Meanwhile, for family planning, 58 percent of married women 15- to 49-years old now use a particular method—higher than 2017’s 54 percent.

Of the former, 41.8 percent said they use any modern method of contraception—up from 40.4 percent five years ago, while 16.5 percent still opt for traditional, more than the 13.9 percent half-a-decade ago.

The pill is still the preferred choice of Filipino women, while there were more of those who underwent sterilization, or bilateral tubal ligation, since the last survey.