Bubble options: Viable alternatives to lockdowns?

After two weeks of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), government policymakers decided to place Metro Manila, Laguna and Bataan under a modified ECQ (MECQ) until August 31, 2021.  The latest classification is “without prejudice to the strict implementation of granular lockdowns” if deemed necessary by local officials. According to the Presidential Spokesman, this decision was arrived at “by secret ballot” --- the first time that the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases did so --- as its members were “divided” on what to recommend to Malacañang.  He disclosed that  “it was the experts who said ECQ was not working anymore for whatever reason because we’ve been doing this for two years and maybe its time to change tactics.” On August 19, the day this decision was announced, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 14,985 new COVID-19 cases, another new peak level. Based on most recent records, 23.8 percent of 59,828 tested positive: 95.3 percent were mild; only 2 percent were severe and critical; the rest were moderate or asymptomatic. Nationwide utilization rate of ICU beds was at 72 percent; for isolation beds, it was 61 percent. This snapshot has prompted many concerned sectors --- particularly business and industry --- to suggest that, perhaps, it is time for a policy shift away from quarantine or lockdown as the primary mode of containing the spread of the contagion. Presidential Adviser on Entrepreneurship Jose Concepcion III proposed last week two options: first, “safer bubbles” in malls and restaurants; and second, “transportation bubbles” in buses.  In both options, only fully vaccinated persons will be allowed mobility while those who are still unvaccinated would be restricted in their movements.  Other health protocols such as masking, social distancing and frequent hand washing will be maintained. Malacañang swiftly replied that these alternatives could be considered as soon as 50 percent of the population has been vaccinated, thereby attaining “community protection.” Vaccine czar Vivencio Dizon reported that in Metro Manila, a 41 percent vaccination rate has been achieved. Hence, the goal of attaining community protection in the NCR seems to be well within reach. Also meriting closer study is the “island bubble” concept proposed by Professor Rene Domingo of the Asian Institute of Management.  In a nutshell: “An ‘island bubble’ is enclosed by natural borders like rivers or mountains that serve as barriers in deterring human movement.  About 40 percent of Filipinos live in such small islands, peninsulas, valleys, highlands and enclosed coastal areas.  Having a protective natural barrier and a small population, a bubble needs less resources and time to eradicate the virus and protect itself from imported re-infection.” Instead of prescribing quarantine norms for entire economic regions, the disease containment strategy shall be based on geography and topography.  Community protection is thus achieved more effectively in island bubbles than in highly porous metropolitan areas. The economic crisis and the learning crisis that have emerged from the pandemic must be addressed more decisively --- and this is why it is time to take a hard look at alternatives to hard lockdowns.