Lower active cases by end-September in NCR seen under 6-week MECQ with ‘improved’ interventions - DOH

A six-week modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) with “improved” interventions may result to a lower number of active coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila by the end of September, according to the Department of Health (DOH).

Based on the projection of the DOH and modeling tool FASSSTER, active cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may reach up to 66,403 by Aug. 31 and 269,694 by Sept. 30 if the region is under a two-week ECQ and four-week MECQ.

The projections were also made under the condition that the current levels of vaccination, PDITR (prevent, detect, isolate, treat, reintegrate) strategies, and compliance to minimum public health standards will be maintained.

On the other hand, the DOH said that a six-week MECQ accompanied with intensified pandemic response and strategies may result in 83,921 active cases by Aug. 31 and 152,776 active cases by Sept. 30.

The estimated figures were lower compared to a scenario where the metropolis is under a six-week MECQ with no significant changes in the interventions, as the number of active cases in the region may hit 71,255 by Aug. 31 and 330,079 by Sept. 30.

Moreover, the DOH projected that active cases may reach 83,921 by Aug. 31 and 158,489 by Sept. 30 in a setting where the NCR is under a four-week MECQ and two-week General Community Quarantine (GCQ) with “improved” interventions.

“The latest projections suggest that the best case scenario or the least number of active cases in the NCR is seen when there is an improvement in the vaccination, shortening the interval between symptom onset and isolation to at most six days, and compliance to the minimum public health standards,” the DOH said.

“We can further lower down the projected active cases in NCR if there is Improved adherence to MPHS, better case detection to isolation time, and increased vaccination coverage,” it added.