FINDING ANSWERS
Former Senator
Atty. Joey Lina
The trend is disturbing and our scientific researchers see it as a portent of horrific times ahead.
For three days since last Friday, the three highest single-day tallies so far this year of COVID cases nationwide were reported – 4,578 new cases on Friday, 5,000 on Saturday, and 4,899 on Sunday.
The 5,000 new infections last March 13 is the largest single-day number recorded in around seven months, or since August 26, 2020, when the daily recorded number of new cases hit 5,277. And the numbers are projected to keep rising, even way beyond the highest daily tally so far of 6,958 cases reported on August 10, 2020.
OCTA Research fellow Professor Guido David was my guest last Sunday in my Teleradyo program Sagot Ko ‘Yan, and he said that the daily COVID infections could reach 5,000 to 6,000 in Metro Manila alone by the end of this month, based on a 1.95 reproduction rate.
Next month could be worse, particularly in Metro Manila. He said single-day new cases could reach a staggering 14,000 by mid-April. Nationwide, the numbers could be as high as 18,000 to 20,000.
“We have to slow it down because the hospitals will be overwhelmed,” Prof. David warned.
At the current COVID reproduction rate of 1.95, some hospitals are already getting swamped. A report of CNN Philippines said that as of March 13, intensive care units of the Philippine General Hospital, San Lazaro Hospital, Philippine Lung Center, and the East Avenue Medical Center were operating at full capacity, and “bed allocations for COVID-19 cases at PGH and San Lazaro are now 70percent and 60percent occupied, respectively.”
OCTA’s grim projections ought to serve as a wake-up call. “Our projections have already come true. In fact, they’re faster compared to our original projections. So we adjusted the projections,” Prof. David said. “We’re not trying to frighten people. All we’re saying is that’s the science. There’s no fear-mongering in science.”
It is of extreme urgency, therefore, that the citizenry and government, both national and local, exert all efforts to slow down the transmission rate of the coronavirus while awaiting the millions of vaccine doses expected to arrive in the coming months.
The upsurge in new infections could be due to a variety of reasons, ranging from the emergence of new COVID variants, to complacency primarily caused by the so-called quarantine fatigue.
Many continue to ask: Despite all the lockdowns and stringent measures already laid out, how come we have not flattened the curve of the coronavirus that continues to rise? Is our country’s strategy and response to the pandemic wrong? Do we need a major revision in our strategy? Is there really a no-nonsense strategy at all?
I still think the strategy, programs, and IATF guidelines are sensical, and even practical. There is no need for a new strategy. What we need is a more aggressive, focused, unified, coordinated, quick and monitored implementation of the strategy.
The strategy and programs to deal with the pandemic have been laid out since March 16 last year when the government, thru Proclamation No. 929, declared a “State of Calamity throughout the Philippines due to coronavirus disease 2019.” It followed Proclamation No. 922 issued on March 8, 2020 which put under a “state of public health emergency” the entire country. The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) then issued the Omnibus Guidelines on the Implementation of Community Quarantine with amendments.
So how come things are seemingly getting worse?
I dare say the fault lies in implementation. I say this based on my experience tackling the SARS epidemic in 2003 when I was at the helm of the DILG which exerted tremendous efforts to ensure action plans were carried out by local government units especially at the barangay level.
At the onset of the SARS outbreak then, we enjoined all barangay governments to create and activate their Barangay Health Emergency Response Teams (BHERTs), in line with Section 16 or the General Welfare Clause of the Local Government Code which tasks LGUs to promote health and safety within their jurisdiction.
Now, with rising COVID cases, LGUs are hard-pressed to do everything necessary to keep new infections at bay. And among the essential measures are localized lockdowns and unified curfews.
If the barangay is the convergence point of all the anti-coronavirus measures, then national and local governments must ensure that barangays across the country, especially in the hot spot areas, must be fully mobilized, funded, monitored with lightning speed if we are to prevent the COVID situation from worsening.
The mechanism and strategy in providing an effective response during times of pandemic are already in place. What is needed is to make the mechanism work and the strategy strictly enforced – in a massive, focused, unified, coordinated, quick and monitored manner.
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