The Philippines, the world's No. 1 rice importer, would buy an even bigger volume during the current marketing year (MY) after a string of strong typhoons battered farms and slashed harvests, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service's (FAS) latest Grain: World Markets and Trade" report published on Dec. 10 showed a larger MY 2024-2025 rice import projection for the Philippines—now at a record-high 5.4 million metric tons (MT), from 5.1 million MT previously.
The report attributed this upward adjustment to a "smaller" domestic crop from Filipino rice farmers.
The Philippines' MY for milled rice starts in July of the current year until June of the next year, which means MY 2024-2025 covers the period July 2024 to June 2025.
For the preceding MY 2023-2024, the USDA also hiked its earlier estimates to reflect that the Philippines imported 5.3 million MT, and not just five million MT as previously estimated, also due to the smaller crop in the current MY.
If the USDA's forecast comes true, the Philippines is poised to be the world’s biggest rice importer for three MYs in a row or since MY 2022-2023, during which the country bought 3.9 million MT of the staple food abroad, dislodging China from the top position.
In its separate newest "World Agricultural Production" report also on Dec. 10, the USDA-FAS highlighted lower rice production in the Philippines following several typhoons last November.
"USDA estimates MY 2024-2025 rice production at 12 million MT (milled basis), down two percent from [estimates] last month" of 12.3 million MT, it said.
Philippine milled production has been declining yearly, from 12.625 million MT in MY 2022-2023 and 12.325 million MT in 2023-2024.
"Harvested area is estimated at 4.6 million hectares (ha), down two percent from last month and three percent from last year. Yield (rough basis) is estimated at 4.14 tons per ha, down less than one percent from last month, but slightly up from last year," the report added.
The global agricultural production report noted that the Philippines' currently active typhoon season brought six successive storms passing through the country just in November, slashing fourth-quarter rice production.
Even as the majority of these typhoons made no direct landfall, high winds as well as torrential rainfall affected the rice-producing regions of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Ilocos, whose combined production contributed about half of rice output during the last quarter of 2024.
As widespread flooding occurred in these three neighboring regions, rice fields were inundated, the USDA noted, citing local reports.
"Though rice is a hardy crop and can withstand short periods of flooding, area and yield impacts are more probable in extended periods of inundation," it pointed out.
The report cited that while rice is cultivated all-year-round here in the Philippines, production during the fourth and first quarters of each year have the largest volumes, accounting for roughly 38 and 23 percent of annual output, respectively.
On the flip side, rice consumption in the country has been steadily rising, to an estimated 17.2 million MT in MY 2024-2025, from 16.6 million MT in 2023-2024, 16.1 million MT in 2022-2023, 15.4 million MT in 2021-2022, and 14.8 million MT in MY 2020-2021.