The number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila could further go down to less than 100 per day by the end of November if indicators continue to improve, an OCTA Research fellow said on Friday, Nov. 4.
Recent data shared by Dr. Guido David showed that Metro Manila’s seven day positivity rate has decreased to 8.9 percent, marking the region’s lowest positivity rate since July 4, 2022.
“A week ago, on Oct. 26, the positivity rate was at 10.7 percent. The peak positivity rate in this current wave was at 19.1 percent on Oct. 4,” said David in a tweet.
The region’s reproduction number as of Oct. 31 was at 0.65 with a one week growth rate of -35 percent. Reproduction number pertains to the average number of secondary transmissions that a single virus carrier can infect. Previously, David disclosed that the lower the reproduction number, the lesser the risk of acquiring the virus in a specific area.
Similar to other Covid-19 indicators, the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila has also declined.
“ dropped from 411 to 269 as of Nov. 3, for an average daily attack rate of 1.87 per 100k . Healthcare utilization remained low at 27.8 percent while intensive care unit occupancy was also low at 21.6 percent,” David furthered.
If these Covid-19 indicators continue to improve despite the eased mask mandate and the resumption of in-person classes, David said that the number of new Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila could eventually decline to less than 100 per day by the end of the month.