OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David projected that the peak of Metro Manila’s current Covid-19 wave may occur next week, citing the lower infection growth rate over the past week.
In an update shared on Twitter on Wednesday, Aug. 10, David noted that the central region’s growth rate was down to 5 percent on Aug. 9, from 14 percent on Aug. 2.
“With 828 new cases reported in the NCR [National Capital Region] on August 9, 2022, the one week growth rate in the NCR decreased to 5 percent,” David said.
He pointed out that the reproduction number—or the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual—has also decreased to 1.17.
The reproduction number was at 1.24 on Aug. 2
“This once again gives us hope that the peak of the wave in the NCR may occur by next week. No guarantees, of course,” David said.
“The trends need to be consistent for about a week before we can confidently say there is a downward trend. In the meantime, stay safe everyone,” he added.
The OCTA fellow observed that the seven-day average in Metro Manila had increased slightly to 1,275, equivalent to an average daily attack rate of 8.85 per 100,000 population.
Moreover, he said the healthcare utilization rate was at 35.7 percent—down from 38 percent on Aug. 2.
Meanwhile, ICU occupancy increased slightly to 31 percent, from 30 percent.
“The positivity rate in the NCR was 15.9 percent as of August 8, compared with 17.4 percent as of August 6,” David added.
Positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who have been tested for Covid-19.