DOH projects over 17K Covid-19 cases daily by end of July

Published June 28, 2022, 3:46 PM

by Analou de Vera

In this file photo taken on April 26, 2021, commuters wearing protective face masks walk along Pratunam pier in Bangkok, after the government imposed strict restrictions for not wearing a mask in public following the recent outbreak of Covid-19 coronavirus cases in Thailand. Thailand announced on June 17, 2022 it would drop rules requiring people to wear masks outdoors and no longer require foreign visitors to register before travel, as Covid-19 cases fall and the kingdom seeks to lure tourists back. Mladen ANTONOV / AFP

The number of new Covid-19 cases per day in the Philippines could reach up to more than 17,000 by the end of July if the public’s compliance with the minimum public health standards will continue to decline, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Tuesday, June 28.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that this is based on the projections made by the Australian Tuberculosis Modeling Network (AuTuMN).

She also noted that the public’s current adherence with health protocols has decreased by at least 21 percent.

“Following the baseline scenario of 21 percent decline in our minimum public health standards from February 14, maaring umabot tayo sa 17,105 ang kaso kada araw sa katapusan ng Hulyo (we could reach 17,105 cases per day by the end of July),” she said during a press briefing.

It was also noted that if compliance with the health protocols decreased by 22 percent, the daily number of cases nationwide may increase to over 22,000.

Other factors that were considered for these projections include public’s increased mobility, waning immunity, and detection of “imported” cases of Covid-19, said Vergeire.

“Maaring tumaas ang ating mga kaso kung mababawasan ang pagsunod natin sa minimum public health standards, gayundin kung hindi tayo magpapabakuna (Our cases could increase if we reduce our compliance with minimum public health standards and if we don’t get vaccinated),” said Vergeire.

“Bagamat projections lamang ito, mabuting tingnan natin bilang gabay upang patuloy lang tayo sa tinatamasa nating unti-unting paglalakbay tungo sa new normal (Although these are just projections, we should look at them as a guide so that we can continue on our gradual journey towards the new normal),” she added.

Currently, the country’s average number of daily cases is at 710, said Vergeire, adding that the Philippines remains under low-risk classification for Covid-19.

The National Capital Region is “showing a steep increase in the number of cases” in recent weeks. The number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila is at 350 per day, said Vergeire.

The other areas in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are also experiencing an uptick in cases, said Vergeire.

Vergeire also reported additional cases of Omicron subvariants. There are 50 new cases of the BA.5 subvariant, 11 more cases of BA.2.12.1, and two cases of BA.4. There are now a total of 93 BA.5, three BA.4, and 43 BA.2.12.1 cases detected in the country.

Amid this development on the country’s cases trend, Vergeire noted that there remains no significant increase in the number of severe and critical cases.

“Batay sa status ng mga naoospital (Based on our hospitalization status), more than half remains to be asymptomatic and mild,” she said.

“Ang bilang ng mga severe and critical admissions sa national level ay nanatiling less than 1,000 cases simula mid-March ng 2022, bagamat nagkakaroon ng bahagyang pagtaas nitong mga nakaraang araw (The number of severe and critical admissions at the national level has remained less than 1,000 cases since mid-March of 2022, although there has been a slight increase in recent days),” she added.