From a risk classification of "severe outbreak" last week, Metro Manila is now at a "high risk" level for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), based on the internationally-developed COVID Act Now indicators used by OCTA Research Group.
In a tweet on Wednesday, Jan. 26, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila may further go down to "moderate risk" classification by next week owing to the steady decline of COVID cases across the region.
OCTA's monitoring showed that Metro Manila's average daily cases from Jan. 19 to 25 have decreased to 6,280--from 15,782 cases from Jan. 12 to 18.
Its one-week average daily attack rate (ADAR) or incidence rate also dipped to 44 cases per 100,000 population from 111 cases per 100,000 population a week ago.
Moreover, the region's reproduction number or infection rate was down to 0.71 from 2.06--which confirms a downward trend in new and active cases.
Both the healthcare utilization and intensive care unit occupancy have also decreased from 56 percent and 53 percent to 48 percent and 44 percent, respectively.
David on Tuesday evening, Jan. 25, projected that daily cases in Metro Manila will further go down to 500 by Valentine's Day, Feb. 14.
Citing the data from the Department of Health, David said that Metro Manila recorded 2,751 new cases on Tuesday.
"Actuals are still tracking below the Jan. 20 projections. At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by Feb. 14," David said in a tweet.
However, he reminded the public to continue to follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend.