The 2021-2022 La Niña has likely reached its peak in November-December 2021 but above-average rainfall may still persist, particularly across Visayas and Mindanao, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said during its Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, Jan. 26.
PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said the equatorial sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were still below average in the last four weeks, which is typical of a La Niña condition.
However, she noted that during the last two months, "positive and negative subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward."
"Humihina na 'yung paglamig ng temperatura sa ibabaw ng dagat so ibig sabihin po last November-December ay na-achieve na rin nating 'yung peak ng La Niña condition. Ibig sabihin papunta na po siya sa decaying stage (The cooling of the sea surface temperature has been weakening, which means that the peak of La Niña has been likely achieved in November-December. It also means that the La Niña condition will be entering the decaying stage)," Solis explained.
Solis pointed out that while La Niña has already reached its peak, impacts associated with La Niña conditions, such as above-average rainfall, are expected to persist across Visayas and Mindanao.
"La Niña persists and likely to continue until February-March-April 2022 season, with about 80 percent chance, and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-May-June 2022 season," she said.
She added that La Niña still increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the country, particularly in Visayas and Mindanao.
PAGASA's rainfall forecast shows that by February, generally below normal to near normal rainfall conditions are likely in Luzon, while Visayas and Mindanao may receive near to above normal rainfall conditions.
By March, mostly near to above normal rainfall conditions are expected over most parts of the country except for below to near normal rainfall conditions in the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and some parts of Central Luzon.
By April, mostly below normal to near normal rain fall conditions are likely in most areas of Luzon, while generally near normal rainfall conditions with patches of above normal rainfall may prevail over Visayas and Mindanao.
From May to July, generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected across the country with some areas that may receive below normal rainfall in July.