Projection of temperature rise to 2.7°C due to accelerating scale of carbon emissions is seen as the toughest challenge that will confront delegates at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP 26) United Nations Climate Change Summit in Glasgow, Scotland this month.
HSBC’s global research covers key points that the COP26 delegates must look out for. These are mitigation versus adaptation; examining the energy transition in Asia; and introducing a new framework for climate credit analysis.
The bank also analyzed pledges and pathways set forth by the United Kingdom, which is the host of the COP26 summit, the United States, South Korea, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, as well as the deforestation in Brazil.
“If pledges from all parties are included, we are on course for a 16-percent rise in global emissions in 2030, that may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century. This highlights the enormity of the challenge facing delegates at COP26,” HSBC stressed.
That extent of climate warming is way above the 1.5°C limit prescribed by scientists, for the world to still avoid extreme devastation foisted against the environment and humanity.
“The task has been made more urgent by increased scientific evidence of human-induced climate change and the volume of record-breaking extreme weather events recently,” the bank conveyed.
The COP26 summit opened on October 31 and will end on November 12. The gathering is considered to be “the world’s last chance to get into the net zero emissions trajectory by 2030 and keep temperature rises below 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Agreement.”
In recent weeks, HSBC noted that in the face of global pressure “there has been a flurry of climate-related announcements in the run up to COP26 – from governments, businesses, investors and civil society. Most notably, a number of countries have updated their climate pledges and announced 2050 or 2060 plans to achieve carbon neutrality.”
Among the countries that have made pledges on their ‘net zero’ targets by mid-century have been Saudi Arabia, Australia and the UAE. And as fleshed out by the UN, there are now more than 130 economies around the world “that have set or are planning to set a mid-century net zero target.”
HSBC highlighted though that “the details of how this (net zero targets) will be implemented are mostly lacking.”
The bank primarily cited the extent of “pressure from all sides as politicians juggle the pandemic, the global energy crunch and the balance between long-term climate preparedness and votes.”
On the part of the UN, its most recent NDC (nationally determined contribution) synthesis update, which represents the aggregation of climate pledges, had shown that 2050 emissions “could be 83-88 percent lower than 2019 – for around 70 parties that have formally submitted updates.”
It was qualified though that such figure “leaves many remaining parties yet to make a net zero pledge – or to do so formally – indicating the work that remains to be done.”
And of the 143 parties included in the latest synthesis update, emissions in 2030 could be “9.0-percent below the 2010 level by 2030”, still way below the 45 percent reduction required for a 2030 net zero trajectory.