Metro Manilans must keep guard up to avoid 'possible' spike in COVID-19 cases — OCTA

Published October 25, 2021, 10:51 AM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

(DR. GUIDO DAVID / TWITTER)

Metro Manila’s coronavirus disease (COVID-19) trends are still going down despite having over 1,000 cases per day over the past few days, independent research group OCTA said in its monitoring on Monday, Oct. 25.

“Are cases rising in the NCR (National Capital Region)? The short answer is no, at least not yet,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet on Monday.

“While new cases over the past few days were higher than 1,000 (from Oct. 19 to 21 there were less than 1,000 cases per day), the trends are still in line with weekly patterns,” David explained.

In his report on Oct. 23, he pointed out that the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila decreased to less than 1,000 for the first time since the July 22-28 period.

Metro Manila’s reproduction number was at 0.45 and the seven-day average was 996 cases.

In the latest report, David said that the COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila is at 0.48 while the seven-day average continued to decrease to 945 cases.

“In other words, there is no indication yet of an upward trend. We must continue to follow health protocols to avoid possible spike in cases,” David said.

He advised the public to continue following health protocols and avoid the 3Cs–confined spaces with poor ventilation; crowded places with no physical distancing; and close-contact settings with face to face interaction.

Outside of Metro Manila, OCTA on Monday reported that a COVID-19 outbreak in Lubang, a small municipality of 20,000 people in Occidental Mindoro, has caused cases to increase by 580 percent and the reproduction number to spike to 3.61.

It is considered a critical risk area using criteria based on covidactnow.org, David noted.

He said that Dumaguete City is also considered a critical risk area.

He also pointed out that trends have slowed down in Zamboanga City but still had the highest cases outside Metro Manila and is classified as high risk.

Other high-risk areas that are already on a downtrend include Bacolod, Tagum, Santiago, and Bayombong, David cited.

 
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