Shoppers flock along Ylaya in Divisoria Market on Oct. 17, 2021 as the Metro Manila eases to Alert Level 3 for COVID-19. (Photo by Ali Vicoy)

The number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country is expected to drop to the level before the recent surge in infections driven by the Delta variant by the end of October, the OCTA Research group said Thursday, Oct. 21.

OCTA fellow Professor Guido David said the seven-day average of new cases in the country decreased to 6,416 cases, while the nationwide reproduction number stood at 0.55.

“This is the lowest seven-day average since late July,” David noted.

Photo from OCTA Research fellow Prof. Guido David

In the National Capital Region (NCR), the seven-day average was at 1,156 cases, with a reproduction number of 0.47.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

“Based on the current trends, the country is tracking at less than 5,000 new cases (seven-day average) by the end of October with less than 1,000 in the NCR,” David said.

“This means we expect numbers to return to pre-Delta surge level by the end of October,” he added.

The Philippines remains under “moderate-risk” cases classification for COVID-19), according to the Department of Health (DOH).

Likewise, the Health department classified Metro Manila under moderate-risk level for COVID-19.