The country is now close to winning the battle against the more transmissible coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Delta variant, OCTA Research group said on Monday, Oct. 11.
In a public briefing, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the reproduction number of the COVID -19 cases in Metro Manila was at 0.63.
“Nasa 0.63 ang reproduction number sa Metro Manila at bumababa pa yan. ‘Yung seven-day average natin sa Metro Manila ay less than 2,000 [cases], 1,900 plus (The reproduction number in Metro Manila is at 0.63 and is still declining. Our seven-day average in Metro Manila is less than 2,000 [cases], 1,900 plus),” he said.
“Last time na nakakita tayo ng 2,000 cases per day ay noong July 31 to August 6, before tayo mag ECQ (enhance community quarantine). Ibig sabihin na-reverse na natin yung surge na nangyari from August to September (Last time we saw 2,000 cases per day was on July 31 to August 6, before we implemented the ECQ. That means we have reversed the surge that happened from August to September),” he added.
Meanwhile, the positivity rate in Metro Manila, which is currently at 12 percent, is also expected to further decrease to less than 10 percent.
“Kapag less than 10 percent masasabi natin na medyo sapat na talaga yung testing na ginagawa natin sa Metro Manila (When it is less than 10 percent, we can say that the testing we do in Metro Manila is quite enough),” David said.
“Mas maganda kung bababa pa ito. ‘Yung 10 percent moderate palang yon, mas maganda kung mapapaba natin yung positivity rate to five percent (It would be better if it will still go down. That 10 percent is just moderate, it would be better if we lower the positivity rate to five percent),” he added.
He, however, said the average daily attack rate in Metro Manila was still high.
While the intensive care units (ICUs) utilization rates in Metro Manila remain high, David noted that hospital utilization rates are decreasing.
David also cited the possibility of placing the National Capital Region (NCR) under a low-risk classification by the end of October.
“Base sa aming pagtataya tingin natin pwede na talagang ibaba sa Alert Level 3, at posible ‘rin na Alert Level 2 dahil nakikita nga natin moderate risk na sa Metro Manila (Based on our forecast, we think it can be really downgraded to Alert Level 3, and it is also possible to Alert Level 2 because we see moderate risk in Metro Manila),” he said.
“Possible yan basta tuloy tuloy ang pagbaba ng kaso… Nakikita natin tuloy tuloy yan ang hanggang pasko. Maligaya na sana ang pasko natin, yan ang inaasahan natin (That’s possible as long as the decreases in cases continue to go down… We can see that it will continue until Christmas. I hope we have a merry Christmas- that’s what we hope for),” he said.
Meanwhile, David noted that there were still COVID-19 surges in the provinces, particularly in Region 2.
“Namamanage natin ang cases sa Metro Manila, tingin natin patapos na ang delta variant sa Metro Manila at sa mga surrounding areas sa CALABARZON, sa Central Luzon (We are managing the cases in Metro Manila, we think the delta variant in Metro Manila and the surrounding areas in CALABARZON, in Central Luzon is coming to an end),” he said.
“[Ito] ang tinatawag nating endgame ng Delta variant. Hindi pa tapos, pero kumokonti na sila. Nananalo na tayo against the Delta variant ([This] is what we call the endgame of the Delta variant. It’s not over yet, but they’re getting lesser. We are already winning against the Delta variant).”
The Department of Health recorded 12,159 additional COVID-19 cases on Sunday, Oct. 10.