If the current trend continues, the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country will likely be less than 10,000 cases daily by the end of October, based on the latest projection of independent research group OCTA.
In his update on Wednesday, Sept. 29, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the seven-day average of new cases in the country continued to decrease to 16,902, with a one-week growth rate of minus 12 percent and reproduction number of 0.95.
"Two weeks ago, the seven-day average was 20,553," David said in a tweet.
"At the current pace, the seven-day average of new cases could decrease to less than 10,000 per day by the end of October," he pointed out.
The Department of Health on Wednesday reported 12,805 more COVID-19 cases, bringing the country's case tally to 2,535,732.
In an earlier tweet, David noted that the surge in infections has started to show a "more defined" downward trend.
However, he said that although the country's average daily COVID-19 cases and reproduction number have been consistently decreasing, hospital utilization in many areas remains high.
"While NCR (National Capital Region) Plus is on a downward trend, the surge is still happening in many other provinces," he added.
The NCR Plus is composed of Metro Manila, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, and Cavite.