OCTA: Metro Manila still at ‘high risk’ for COVID-19 infections

Published September 26, 2021, 1:08 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

CTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Sunday, Sept. 26, said that Metro Manila remains at “high risk” for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread, based on the indicators used by Covid Act Now.

(Photo from Dr. Guido David’s Twitter/MANILA BULLETIN)

In its COVID-19 update released on Sunday, OCTA said that Metro Manila averaged 4,220 cases daily in the past seven days with a one-week growth rate of -20 percent (negative 20 percent) and a reproduction number of 0.94.

Based on OCTA’s monitoring, Metro Manila’s average daily COVID-19 cases and reproduction number have been consistently decreasing in the past few weeks but the region’s positivity rate remains at a “high” level.

“The positivity rate in the NCR (National Capital Region) over the past seven days was 19 percent, which is considered high,” OCTA said.

This means that nearly two in 10 people tested turned out positive for COVID-19.

“Using [the] Covid Act Now guidelines, NCR remained as high risk [for COVID-19],” OCTA said.

OCTA Research assesses the risk level of an area using the indicators of the Covid Act Now developed by the Harvard Global Health Institute, Apple, Microsoft, and Bloomberg.

Four indicators are used to determine the COVID risk of an area, which include incidence based on the local government unit’s (LGU) most current reproduction number; incidence based on the most recent seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 population, also called average daily attack rate; hospital ICU utilization rate (ICUUR); and testing which refers to the most recent seven-day average of the test positivity rate.

Moreover, OCTA on Sunday said that five LGUs in Metro Manila are now classified as “moderate risk.” These are Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Valenzuela, and Pateros.

However, the rest of the LGUs remained at high risk.

“It must be emphasized that the risk levels calculated are based on Covid Act Now in the US. This may not reflect alert level ratings used by DOH (Department of Health),” OCTA said.