The reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila further decreased to 0.97 from 0.99, independent research group OCTA said on Friday, Sept. 24.
“The NCR [National Capital Region] had a reproduction number of 0.97 and growth rate of – [negative] 22 percent,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet.
From Sept. 17 to 23, Metro Manila averaged 4,480 daily cases, while its average daily attack rate (ADAR) or incidence rate was 32.08 cases per 100,000 population.
David also noted that all 17 local government units (LGUs) in Metro Manila had “negative” one-week growth rates, while 13 LGUs had reproduction numbers of less than 1.
“Of the 17 Metro Manila LGUs, Navotas had the lowest reproduction number of 0.57 and lowest ADAR of 15.89 daily cases per 100,000 population,” David said.
Other LGUs with below 1 reproduction number were Caloocan (0.85), Malabon (0.73), Manila (0.95), Las Piñas (0.91), Muntinlupa (0.85), Valenzuela (0.95), Pasay (0.96), Parañaque (0.94), Taguig (0.97), Pateros (0.75), Pasig (0.98), and Makati (0.98).
Meanwhile, the reproduction number in Marikina (1.22), Quezon City (1.15), Mandaluyong (1.13), and San Juan (1.18) remain above 1.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
OCTA has been hoping to see the reproduction number fall below 1 to gradually see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.