OCTA: Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number drops to 0.99

Published September 23, 2021, 12:20 PM

by Jhon Aldrin Casinas

The reproduction number of the coronavirus disease in Metro Manila further decreased to 0.99, the OCTA Research said Thursday, Sept. 23.


OCTA fellow Professor Guido David said the reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that an infected individual can infect, in the National Capital Region (NCR) is now at 0.99 from the previous 1.03.

Moreover, David pointed out that the region’s one-week growth rate declined to -20 percent based on their analysis of the data from the Department of Health (DOH) as of Sept. 22.

This means that the average number of cases this week, which was at around 4,600 cases, is 20 percent lower than last week’s 5,800 cases, he explained.

“Gayunpaman, gusto nating linawin na nagsisimula pa lang yung pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso (However, we want to clarify that the decline in the number of cases is just starting),” David said in a public briefing.

“May kataasan pa rin yung bilang ng kaso kaya kailangan patuloy pa rin yung pagsunod natin sa health protocols (The number of cases is still high so we still need to continue to follow the health protocols),” he added.

David explained that the once the reproduction number is less than one, the rate of infection slows down.

“‘Yung pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso, nagsimula iyan nakita natin mga last week (We have seen the decrease in the number of cases started around last week),” he said.

So far, OCTA said the number of cases peaked on Sept. 11. It was when the country logged its highest number of new infections in a single day at 26,303 cases nationwide.

Of the figure, David said that 8,000 of which came from the NCR. At simula noon, nagsimula na ring bumaba (And since then, the number of cases has started to go down).

While there is an improvement in the NCR’s reproduction number, the expert noted that there are still many infected patients admitted in hospitals.

Aside from Metro Manila, there has been an improvement in the pandemic situation in other regions, with some areas registering less than one reproduction number.

David said the COVID-19 reproduction number in Cavite was at 0.87, Laguna at 0.90, Bulacan at 0.86, Cebu City at 0.66, and Davao City at 0.99.

The said areas also recorded a negative one-growth rate in cases as of Sept. 22, he added.