The country’s daily average number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases was down six percent over the past week, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Tuesday, Sept. 21.
He noted that the seven-day average of new cases was lower at 19,407 from 20,680.
Based on the 16,361 additional COVID-19 cases reported by the Department of Health on Tuesday, David said the country’s reproduction number has decreased to 1.09 from 1.26 a week ago.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
OCTA has been hoping to see the reproduction number fall below 1 to see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.
Meanwhile, David noted that the country averaged 221 deaths over the past week.
“We need the downtrend to continue so let’s keep up the hard work and prayers,” he said.
In a Malacañang briefing on Tuesday, OCTA Research fellow and molecular biologist-priest Nicanor Austriaco noted that the current surge has been the “longest surge so far,” as the number of COVID-19 cases has been high for an extended period.
He also reiterated OCTA’s observation that the COVID-19 surge has already hit its peak.
“We are seeing a downturn in the numbers. If you look at the Our World in Data, it’s clear that the surge in the Philippines has peaked. For the last three days, we had negative growth rates in the NCR [National Capital Region] suggesting that the NCR also has peaked,” Austriaco said.
“But all of these are always reversible and we have to be very careful as we move into the granular lockdown mode that we do not reverse the gains we have made in the last few weeks,” he added.