OCTA: PH's COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.12

Published September 20, 2021, 5:41 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


The current reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country is down to 1.12 from 1.27 a week ago, based on the latest monitoring of OCTA Research Group.

“New cases in the Philippines averaged 19,925 over the past seven days, a decrease of 4 percent from the previous seven days. The reproduction number in the country decreased to 1.12,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a Twitter post on Monday, Sept. 20.

The Department of Health on Monday reported 18,937 more COVID-19 infections, bringing the total number of cases to 2,385,616.

With the decreasing reproduction number and average infections, David pointed out that the surge of COVID-19 cases in the country may have already reached its peak.

“However, cases are still high and hospitals will remain full for the coming weeks,” David pointed out.

“We need to continue best practices–minimum health standards, testing, contact tracking and early isolation, so the downtrend continues,” he added.

In OCTA’s report released on Monday, it reiterated that the surge of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has already peaked as indicated by the improving reproduction number and growth rate.

However, it noted that Metro Manila may still register around 4,000 cases per day by the end of September and more than 2,000 cases per day by the end of October.

Metro Manila averaged 5,136 cases on Sept. 13 to 19, down by 13 percent from 5,916 cases on Sept. 6 to 12, OCTA said.