OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David expressed concern that the implementation of granular lockdowns in Metro Manila may not be effective to curb the latest coronavirus disease (COVID-19) surge in the region.
"Based on historical evidence, granular lockdowns in the face of a massive surge have not been effective. I suppose this will need to come with a lot of hope and prayer for it to work," David said in a Twitter post on Saturday, Sept. 4.
"Other countries have tried this our hospital system is not as strong as those in western countries," he added.
David was reacting to the announcement of Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez that the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases has already approved the implementation of granular lockdown in Metro Manila starting Sept. 8.
Under this scheme, the locked-down area may only be a group of houses or a subdivision, instead of an entire barangay.
"If the decision has been made, we just have to support it. continue to work together and hope for the best. I will continue to monitor trends in the NCR and the Philippines. Stay safe everyone. Your fate, and your family's fate, is in your hands when you go out of your homes," David said.
He instead encouraged the public to "go for personal ECQ if they can."
OCTA has been pushing for a two-week extension of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila as the number of COVID-19 cases has yet to decrease.
Metro Manila's reproduction number is currently at 1.39.
It has been decreasing over the past week but the number is still above 1, which means the rate of COVID-19 infections remains high.
OCTA said that as long as the reproduction number does not drop below 1, Metro Manila will not see a reduction in the actual number of new COVID-19 cases.
David also clarified that the implementation of ECQ is not the only measure to curb the spread of transmission.
"We have been calling for mass testing since last year. This would help a lot. I think they will bank on the vaccinations this time," he said.